J’Accuse!

Know Who Has Steered the Mass Media Industries Into Catastrophe

Craven are those who shun responsibility for formulating and sustaining the disastrous strategy that during the past 20 years has led the Mass Media industries to financial catastrophe and caused literally billions of people worldwide to abandon routine usage of newspapers, magazines, and radio and television stations as the predominant means by which consumers obtain news, entertainment, and other information.

I accuse the ‘digital’ executives of the Mass Media industries (including notably those who decades ago were celebrated by their industries as ‘New Media Pioneers’) of being directly culpable for the titanic financial shipwreck and very doom of their industries.

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Although you might nowadays hear many people who work below the corporate suites in Mass Media industries—workers who virtually all have no experience or formal training in the strategic management of their industries, glibly blame their industries’ financial woes and lost audiences on convenient bogeymen such as corporate media chain ownership, equity market quarterly earnings pressures, avaricious hedge funds, social media, search engines, or even consumers themselves (who they say ’have become habituated not to pay for online contents’, the real culprits who caused the industries’ catastrophe are the industries’ own digital executives whose very responsibility was to cause the opposite results. I herein indict them.

During the mid-1990s, these new media pioneers and digital executives volunteered or were assigned to formulate their industries’ adaptation strategy to the introduction of personal computer-mediated technologies into the world’s media environment. The gist of what they formulated was that their companies would launch websites that act as the equivalents of their companies’ printed editions or broadcast services. Publishers’ webpages would become the online analogue of their printed story pages; broadcasters’ webpages would become the online transmitters of live broadcasts and the on-demand repositories of the previously broadcast.

The strategy assumed that consumers and advertisers would use the websites the same ways (e.g., as frequently, thoroughly) as consumers and advertisers had used the printed products or broadcast services, and thus that the tradition business models of printed editions and broadcast services would work successfully online.

Although not a goal or benchmark within it, the strategy speculated that if ever enough consumers abandoned usage of print or broadcast for online, then perhaps the Mass Media industries could begin operating only online. Publishers thereby could eliminate the expenses of purchasing, printing, and distributing paper products and broadcasters could eliminate the regulatory hassles and expenses of operating transmitters in public airwaves, having to pay for cable or satellite signal carriage, and having to split advertising revenue with local affiliates. The Mass Media industries might thus in the 21st Century generate even greater net revenues operating only online than the industries had ever generated in the 20th Century from print or broadcast.

From the perspective of the mid-1990s, the simplistic assumptions upon which this strategy was based appeared to make sense. This was when going online meant plugging your home telephone landline into a 600- or 1200-baud modem that operated slower than 0.0012-megabytes per second. Because th0se lethargic speeds permitted little more than alphanumeric texts and still photographs to be shoveled online, newspapers and magazines became the firsts to implement the strategy. And as home bandwidths increased later that decade, radio broadcasters shoveled their audio signals into online. And when by 2006 nearly half of homes in developed nations had gained basic broadband access (i.e., speeds up to 1.5-megabytes per second), television networks and stations implemented this ‘Shovelware Strategy’.

Twenty years ago, 2006 was a halcyon year for Mass Media industries. Their printed products and broadcast services set record revenues and net profits, as well as achieved their largest readerships, listenerships, and viewerships. There was now sufficient home bandwidth that all sectors of the industries could converge online; each competing directly with the others by offering full multimedia and not just their own traditional form. Every sector had implemented the Shovelware Strategy and the number of consumers using the Internet had surpassed one billion worldwide. All those factors should have meant that the Shovelware Strategy, its implementation phase over, now entered its mature phase during which its expected profits would be reaped.

By 2007, however, empirical evidence began appearing that clearly indicated consumers and advertisers were NOT using the websites the same ways they had used the printed editions or broadcast services; that the traditional business models of print and broadcast, which had been transplanted online, were NOT generating anywhere near the revenues expected; and that increasingly billions of consumers were abandoning routine usage of the Mass Media industries’ in printed, broadcast, and online and have instead begun routinely the online services of previously unknown companies as their predominant means of obtaining news, entertainment, and other information.

Although I can cite mountains of empirical evidence from all sectors of the Mass Media industries that the Shovelware Strategy was failing each, consider just the U.S. newspaper industry, the largest newspaper market in the world. During the past 20 years, U.S. newspapers, the sector of Mass Media to have used the Shovelware Strategy longest has lost approximately 70 percent of its readerships, advertising clientele, and annual revenues. (The U.S. magazine industry has suffered similarly grave losses.) The empirical evidence against the Shovelware Strategy has never stopped mounting. The strategies’ anticipated level of revenues been achieved. Most of the 6.2 billion consumers worldwide (74 percent of the world’s population) who now use the Internet have abandoned routine usage of the Mass Media industries’ websites and instead they routinely use the online services of the new companies I’ll describe below.

Despite more than 20 years of its usage (30 years in the case of the newspaper and magazine sectors), the digital executives’ persistence in the Shovelware Strategy resulted in the opposite of what it was formulated to do: Consumers and advertisers didn’t use it as contemplated. Its business model failed to generate the revenues anticipated. Indeed, it abjectly failed to compensate the Mass Media industries for the revenues lost when consumers abandoned their printed products and broadcast services, resulting enormous losses of audiences, advertisers, and operating funds. Yet the industries’ digital executives obtusely persist in pursuing this demonstrably calamitous strategy.

You don’t need to have taught postgraduate New Media Management courses for 15 years, as I have, to realize that continuing to pursue so obviously disastrous a strategy for more than 20 years begs pointed questions about the business acumen and leadership of these digital executives and their overlords. Reasonably intelligent businesspeople would have objectively examined the empirical evidence, declared the Shovelware Strategy to be a failure, and at least ten years ago have formulated an alternative in a new direction and that also can repair the damage done.

Before I outline why the Shovelware Strategy was doomed to fail, permit me one justifiably pointed question about these digital executives’ perceptions. They were all aware of the technological observation coined in 1964 and known as ‘Moore’s Law’. It notes that the power, capabilities, and inexpensiveness of computation technologies has been doubling every two years since circa 1900. Between 1994 when the Shovelware Strategy was first implemented and 2006, that means the capabilities of computer-mediated technologies advanced by a factor of 64 (i.e., 26), which is a significant number. But the difference between 1994 and 2026 is advancement by a factor of 65,536 (216), which is gargantuan number. So, I don’t think I’m in error mathematically or logically, or being hyperbolic, when I state that the Mass Media industries’ mid-1990s Shovelware Strategy is now than a thousand times (i.e., 100,000 percent!) outdated and obsolete, and has been wholly upended by technological advancements that occurred since its formulation. Why were the Mass Media industries’ digital executives of the mid-1990s, 2006, or 2026, who knew Moore’s Law, so obtuse or torpid to assume this strategy could perennially persist without end or huge revisions?

What ultimately doomed the Mass Media industries were remarkable technological advancements that arose after the Shovelware Strategy was implemented and, despite forewarnings, that the industries’ digital executives ignored or failed to perceive and grasp. They from 1994 through 2006 had been focused on bandwidth speeds because they needed to be fast enough for converged multimedia. However, most of Moore’s Law’s exponential advancements weren’t about delivery speeds but processor capabilities, particularly server processors. If you’re looking for a visually tangible example of the results of Moore’s Law, my May 12th newsletter will show you one, a $5,000, book-sized, desktop supercomputer with the power of IBM’s $33 million Roadrunner supercomputer which in 2008 was the most powerful computer in the world.

The more than thousand-fold (216), advances in Moore’s Law since the mid-1990s have wrought monumental advances in informational identification, aggregation, sorting, and user targeting processing capabilities. Those serverside advancements have been brilliantly exploited by startup enterprises such as the search engines (Google, Baidu, Bing, Yandex, etc.), social media websites (Facebook, X, Sina Weibo, Vkontakte, TikTok, etc.), and other algorithmic recommendation engines (Spotify, YouTube, Netflix, Pandora, Douyin, etc.). Many of those startup companies weren’t initially founded as media companies but became such when they analyzed how consumers were using their services online.

They became phenomenally popular and successful because during the past 20 years consumers discovered that by using these search engines, social media, or other algorithmic recommendation engines, each of those consumers could obtain a feed of news, entertainment, and other information that much better matches that individual’s own unique mix of needs, interests, and tastes, than can any Mass Media product or service or practical combinations thereof. Likewise, hundreds of millions of marketers discovered that these services can better target advertisements to those individuals than can the Mass Media industries. As results, these startup enterprises became among the fastest growing companies in world history and are nowadays used weekly, if not daily, by virtually all 6.2 billion people who use the Internet.

In my March 10th newsletter, I detailed how these companies did that and why the Mass Media industries can’t (don’t). The basics are that although the defining characteristics of the eponymous Mass Media are mass production and mass reach, the search engines, social media services, and other algorithmic recommendation engines, add the new dimension of simultaneous mass customization. None of the forms of media that arose from the analogue production technologies of the waning Industrial Era can do that. It is a capability entirely arising from the computer-mediated production technologies of the dawning Informational Era. By not utilizing this remarkable new capability and instead simply shoveling their legacy products and services online, the Mass Media industries are, in effect, inadvertently transplanting their legacy two-dimensional products and services into newly three-dimensional media. Therefore, is it any wonder that instead most of the world’s 6.12 billion Internet consumers are using these new enterprises’ services rather than the websites of the Mass Media industries?

Because these new enterprises’ services add an entirely new dimension to media; are entirely based upon digital, rather than analog, production technologies; have become phenomenally successful popularly and financially; have just as rapidly eviscerated the Mass Media industries that preceded them; and have done so during the changeover from the Industrial to Informational eras, that I consider them to be a new genus of media, which in media management academic conferences and my classrooms are being categorically called Individuated Media. All of these new enterprises that collectively form Individuated Media are still rather nascent and will greatly change (i.e., advance) as the century progresses, but their effects on the media landscape have already become epochal.

During the late-1990s, media theorists, such as MIT Media Lab Founder Nicholas Negroponte in his 1995 book Being Digital and Roger Fidler, the former director of New Media Development for Knight-Ridder newspaper chain in the U.S. and one of the initial formulators of the Shovelware Strategy, in his 1997 book Mediamorphosis, predicted the capabilities for media mass customization would probably become possible sometime around the first decade of the 21st Century. Most Mass Media industries’ digital executives apparently couldn’t have cared less. They initially dismissed these new companies’ Individuated Media services as, at most, somehow auxiliary or adjunct to Mass Media websites: just sites helpful for finding or discussing Mass Media contents. They failed to perceive that offering consumers a third dimension (mass customization) in media, rather than just the Industrial Era’s previous two (mass production and mass reach) was an epochal advance or competition that threated their industries. That was unfortunate because surveys in recent years indicated that 6.12 billion consumers now routinely use these Individuated Media companies’ services, rather than the Mass Media industries’ websites, as those consumers primary means to obtain news, entertainment, and other information.

I believe that 2026 can be a momentous year for the Mass Media industries if only the digital executive zombies in it awake. If they are rational businesspeople, they will objectively admit the overwhelming empirical evidence that their Shovelware Strategy and work together to formulate anew based upon the new dimension in media before a growing number of Mass Media companies go out-of-business. My May 12th newsletter detailed how even a small Mass Media company can begin individuating its services.

And doing so this year is even more direly needed due to the latest advancements in Moore’s Law: Artificial Intelligence (AI). This is likely the year in which the ever-accelerating advances in computational technologies will make Moore’s Law itself obsolete. The Government of the United Kingdom’s AI Security Institute reported this month that doubling of Artificial Intelligence’s capabilities are now occurring every 4.7 months, rather than every 24 months as observed by Moore’s Law. As accelerating advances ever shorten the time between doubling of capabilities, the acceleration starts to become tetrationial rather than merely exponential. A doubling of computational power every 4.7 months means a more than thousand-fold increase in Artificial Intelligence’s already astounding capabilities by 2030.

Widespread adoption of AI in search engine services has already markedly reduced the numbers of online users who visit the Mass Media industries websites from those search engines. Moreover, widespread usage of Agentic Artificial Intelligence by consumers themselves has begun. Several recent surveys agree that more than 2.4 billion people (i.e., 30 percent of the world’s population) have already used some form of AI, and that 900 million use it weekly. A survey this year by Capgemini shows that 63 percent of American consumers actively seek ‘hyper-personalized’ contents through Agentic AI and similar AI tools.

Although hundreds of AI experiments are underway within the Mass Media industries and media schools, virtually all focus on using AI either to write stories or fabricate videos rather than on the more obvious and lucrative purpose of using Ai to further satisfy the massive demand by consumers to receive individuated feeds of news, entertainment, and other information. The Individuated Media companies themselves aren’t making that shortsighted mistake. The worldwide rise of AI usage will inevitably make the Shovelware Strategy deader than the tombstones marking all the Mass Media industries that will have needlessly died continuing to pursue that strategy.

Am I rash, hyperbolic, or unhinged to state that the Mass Media industries are being destroyed by their digital executives’ continuing adherence to an obsolete strategy? No, I’m confident that the overwhelming empirical evidence and disastrous financial results objectively validate what I state. I’m merely point out the nakedness of ‘The Emperor’s New Clothes’.

I had hoped that some among those digital executives would by now have demonstrated the perspicuity and leadership to have stated all this. I had likewise expected that some of the surviving New Media Pioneers (perhaps in their retirements?) might have stated all this by now. I’ve heard only silences.

If the Mass Media industries’ want to survive well into the next three quarters of this century, they direly need to find new leadership, change their online strategy, and adapt to demonstrably manifest the 21st Century media megatrends of individuation and AI.

Should anyone publicly dispute what I’ve written, I look forward to debating these issues with them at a media industry conferences. If upon reading this you would like to dispute any or all of this in a smaller forum, please feel free to do so in the Comments section. Constructive criticism is positive even when an accusation is negative.

How Small Mass Media Companies Now Can Individuate Their Contents

Part 3 of 4: The True Online Strategy for the Mass Media

The scene could be Michelham Priory in England, Aulne Abbey or Groenendaal Priory in Belgium, or Maulbronn Monastery in Germany. Within scriptoria, within their monasteries surrounded by moats, medieval monks painstakingly labored copying books by hand. Although almost all the books they copied were Christian Bibles, the senior monks among them would also be allowed to copy unsanctified works by the ancient Romans and Greeks. They were highly trained holy men whose main purpose in life was to copy and disseminate ‘The Word of God’. A monk trained in the scriptoria could copy a book by hand in six months to two years, depending upon if it was ‘illuminated’ with ecclesiastical illustrations or not. Meanwhile, the moats surrounding their monasteries meanwhile protected them against invaders, criminals, and other secular forms of attack.

The metallurgist Johannes Gutenberg’s 1454 invention of the moveable-type printing press threw them into crises. His technology, the world’s first mass production machine, could produce 100 Bibles per month, albeit each not as magnificently illustrated as the monks’ work. Not only was Gutenberg profane — an unsanctified man untrained in holy works, unlike the monks, but he and his device was enormously outproducing the monks. Within a year, his press could produce more Bibles than could all the scriptoria monks in Europe put together, with far lower production costs, vastly lowering the retail prices of Bibles, and ‘stealing’ all but the richest clients of the monks’ work. For a century thereafter, the monks unsuccessfully tried to compete with presses, but the new technology was too efficient, too practical, and too popular.

There are so many similarities between those monks’ predicament and those of Mass Media workers worldwide who are nowadays trying to compete with Google, Baidu, Facebook, Vkontakte, Sina Weibo, X, and other companies started during the past 20 years and that are using computer-mediated technologies to provide billions of consumers with individualized feeds of news, entertainment, and other information, that match each’s own individual mix of needs, interests, and tastes than can any traditional Mass Media company’s products or services.

How can Mass Media companies compete with these new and more efficient, practical, and popular technologies? The new companies that offer these new technologies operate enormous computer data centers to provide such services. How can most Mass Media companies compete with that? They can, now, easily,and affordably.


Let’s use as an example a small daily newspaper (print circulation: 10,000 to 5,000) . It could be the Willimantic Chronicle in the United States, Tsubetsu Shimpō in Japan, or Kerala Janatha in India. The following six steps into individuation should work for most Mass Media companies.

1. Light a Spark

Get past this next sentence: All you need is a supercomputer. Most people have trouble visualizing the amazing effects of ‘Moore’s Law’, an observation about the exponential progress of computing technologies. Pictured above is a great example: a photograph of laptop computer next to a supercomputer. The small, speckled box is the NVIDIA DGX Spark Artificial Intelligence desktop supercomputer, available from Amazon for $4,700 (that’s $4,700; not $4.7 million). All a small Mass Media company needs to individuate the contents it publishes or broadcast is one of these (or similarly-price competing supercomputers such as the Asus Ascent GX10, or MSI EdgeXpert).

All these tiny boxes contain NVIDIA’s Blackwell supercomputer processor, the equivalent of IBM’s $33 million Roadrunner supercomputer, which was the world’s most powerful mainframe computer in 2008. Roadrunner consisted of 296 racks of computer processing units consuming 2.5 megawatts of electricity per hour, weighing 500,000 lbs. (22,700 kg); and taking up 6,000 square feet (56 sq. m) of floor space. By comparison, the Spark weighs 2 pounds (1 kg), is the size of a hardcover book, and uses 240 watts of electricity per hour (equivalent to two 1990s home light bulbs). There have been few better examples of how Moore’s Law has both miniaturized and made computing affordable than this tiny device.

The Spark’s 1-petaflop (‘peta’ as in 1,000 trillion processes per second) and 128 gigabytes of random access memory (RAM) can simultaneously process up to 200 billion (yes, ‘b’ as in billion) local parameters, which is computerese meaning that if there are ten million people living in your market area, the Spark can process up 200,000 items of profile information about each individual.

Any newspaper with a printing press during the 20th Century needed at least one technician called a pressman to operate that device. During the 21st Century, your media company will need at least one technology to program its equipment, if only for the initial setup. If you’ve some experience with the Ubuntu operating system, you can do it yourself. Otherwise, hire an outsider to install (probably technician fee $700 to $1,000) the following free software applications.

The Spark comes preloaded with software that gives it the capabilities to see and understand computerized images (scanned photos, videos, diagrams, etc.) and to operate via voice control as well as by keyboard. Visit a website such as Github.com where you or the technician can download for free into the Spark a Small Language Model (SLM) software program (such as Mistral 7B or Llama-3-8B). Once those are installed, you’re in business.

2. Don’t Forget the Past

The first thing to do is to upload your newspaper’s entire archive into the Spark. If you’ve already digitized the archive, excellent! But if the archive is instead on microfiche, you’ll ironically need to spend more money than your entire supercomputer! Microfiche is an obsolete 120-year-old technology which was never designed for digitization. You’ll need to purchase a dedicated microfiche scanner (such as the ST ViewScan 4, $6,500 to $8,000 new or typically $4,800 to $5,000 used). However, if the newspaper’s archive exists only in the most primitive form, namely printed stories glued onto typewriter pages, just load all of those sheets of paper into an inexpensive but robust scanner (such as $550 Epson FastPhoto FF-680W which can automatically scan 60 pages per minute). The SLM software in the Spark will read, analyze, and catalog each story, document, photo, diagram, image and spreadsheet you input. Your newspaper will now have a ready system that can instantly analyze the history of your community and provide thorough background research and historical context for new stories, as well as among stories your newspaper has published. Consider allowing consumers to access this archive (the Spark) for a subscription or usage fee.

Remember to always add any new stories to this archive, as well as supporting documents such as reporters’ notes, local police blotters, town zoning and construction permit applications and decisions, local government and school board minutes, births and obituaries, local schools’ sport box scores, and anything else that might support or suggest new stories. Remember, too, that the SLM software can analyze this wealth of current and historical data to find otherwise unknown or unrealized links that lead (i.e., data journalism) to more new stories. I’d also advise inputting into the Spark all wire service, supplementary, and syndicated electronic sources of stories received by the newspaper.

2. The Agency

Great start, but there is one more important step to take. Are there any government agencies, undertakers, hospitals, or other organizations from which your reporters routinely obtain information (such as police blotters, school lunch menus, births and deaths, building permits, real estate sales, etc.)? You can save work for your reports by using the Spark as an electronic repository where those organizations can send that information and to create an electronic squadron of newsroom ‘micro agents’ to retrieve that information from the organizations. Such agents are known as Agentic Artificial Intelligence (AAI). Give the Spark its own email address (and tell it to verify from Internet Protocol address the sender’s identity before processing the contents to avoid spoofing or fraudulent inputs). If some of those agents can’t be persuaded to send you that information routinely, ask Spark to create ‘agents’ that routinely search and obtain that information from those organizations’ public websites. When asking Spark to do that, have it also alert the appropriate journalist if the agents find certain things (e.g., violent crimes, court verdicts, etc.) of note. (At the time of this writing (May 12, 2026), I’d also suggest editors, even those without tiny supercomputers, utilize programs such as Google’s Gemini Enterprise Agent Platform, Utilizing Google’s web-based supercomputer, this project instructs how any commercial enterprise can launch hundreds of AI ‘agents’ and “ensure control, governance, and security as you scale.”)

3. Start Neighborhooding

Now is the time to start offering individuated services to the people of your community. This can be done as individuated newsletters or by individuating the home page of your newspaper’s website. I suggest first offering individuated newsletters. This requires less programming than does individuating the home page. What contents to offer? Would people who live in specific villages, neighborhoods, developments, or regions of your community like to receive certain types (or all) news and information specifically about where they live? Births, deaths, building permits, crimes, fires, school events, etc. Such hyperlocal news and information (the type your reporters or the supercomputer ‘agents’ collect) doesn’t appear often in your newspaper’s edition because there isn’t always sufficient page space to justify publishing it. But the Spark can create and operate targeted emailed newsletter for each location. Consumers would merely need to provide their email and postal addresses, plus perhaps select from a checklist what types of information they want, which allows Spark to begin building a database of their names, addresses, and interests. Whether to offer such newsletters for free or a subscription fee is up to you. (Note that a free service is much more likely to build a consumer database faster.)

Would your newspaper’s consumers like to see their selections of stories on your newspaper’s home page rather than see the same home page every other visitor sees? There are large numbers of software programs (primarily developed for retails) that can be loaded into the Spark to do that.



4. Bespoke Individuation

You can now also choose to offer bespoke individuation rather simply allowing consumers to select from a checklist of topics. The consumer can make such choices either on a recurring or one-time basis. The consumer merely needs to send the Spark a query by email or you can offer a portal to the Spark on your newspaper’s website). The Spark will analyze and answer the consumer’s request, adding that to its database about that consumer. Using this mechanism, it’s even possible for a consumer to create their own ‘Daily Me’, a totally customized feed of items. Would your consumers be willing to pay a subscription price for that?

5. Bespoke Journalism

You might have noticed that we haven’t yet asked the Spark’s Artificial Intelligence to write any stories. Hundreds of newsrooms and journalism schools around the world are currently experimenting with Artificial Intelligence for that purpose. As a former owner of a daily newspaper and one with some expertise in these new technologies, I’ve been advising editors not yet to have AI systems write stories. The legal liability is still too high. The ‘hallucination’ (i.e., error) rates of AI are still as high as 2 to 3 percent. I believe those will diminish to less than 0.2 percent within three to four years and might become miniscule thereafter.

However, this doesn’t mean that I haven’t been advising newspapers to allow AI to re-rewrite stories in three specific ways:

· Custom Focus: Is a household which receives one of your emailed newsletters the home of a student who plays on a school sports team? The Spark can be programmed to rewrite the game stories received by that household as stories focusing more on that student (e.g., ‘Despite strong work by shooting guard Billy Jones, the Eagleville Eagles lost to the Putnam Falcons 54 to 62’) rather than receive the otherwise generic story about the game.

· Multilingual or Multilocational: because the Spark is capable of translation, a recent immigrant can receive stories in his native languages rather than the local language version. Or perhaps a subscriber wants information about more than one location. For instance, my wife was born abroad and wants to received news not only specifically about here but also about there. A similar example is that I’ve owned a beach house 30 miles (50 km) from where I live and want to receive neighborhood news from both those locations, etc.

· Format: a subscriber can choose to receive news stories rewritten by the Spark in the form of short summaries; another subscriber who has a Ph.D. can receive lengthier stories featuring deep analysis; and a teenager could even receive news stories as comic strip-style illustrations.

Ai doesn’t change the facts of these stories. Moreover, here are three things to keep in mind when offering individuation of contents”

First, the individuation offered need not be total. The concept is not a binary choice between all or no individuation. A spectrum exists. Any editor who wants to ensure that everyone in his community becomes informed that their town has been sold to Albania can program the Spark to ensure everyone in town sees such bulletin-level stories. The editor controls the degree of individuation offered.

Second, yes, offering individuated, rather than only general-interest, products and services will lead to some consumers to enter informational ‘bubbles’ or ‘echo chambers’ in which they choose to receive only information that reinforces their preexisting beliefs and prejudices. That effect already occurs in social media. It is an unfortunate flaw in human behavior. Yet isn’t that a fair price to pay for other consumers receiving more relevant and more engaging selections of contents than they’d ever gotten before? Remember my point above: the degree of individuation offered consumers is up to the editor.

Third, there is no theoretical reason why individuation cannot be offered in print. You might not have realized it, but you’ve probably been receiving mass individuated contents for decades. Every bank, credit card, and utilities statements you receive via postal mail is individuated. Those are printed on digital presses: computerized-controlled giant ink jet printers that print as fast as any newspaper press. However, I think that it is far easier to deliver individuated contents online than by postal mail or newspaper delivery.

  1. Scale Up

As the sheer numbers of consumers receiving your company’s individuated newsletters or individuated home pages increases, and likewise the degree of customization for each, your company’s individuation infrastructure will need to be strengthened and increased. You might need more than one networked Spark. You might need to use Large Language Model (LLM) software rather than the smaller SLM. The main bottleneck against larger scalability will be the media organization’s existing server connecting to the Internet. To process tens or hundreds of thousands or millions of individuated newsletters or archival requests, a Real-Time Data Streaming server (such as using Apache Kafka) might be needed. The technology of Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG), which relies upon multiple rather than a single database will also help. And for very large numbers of consumers, the Spark ultimately will have to be replaced by use of Distributed Cloud Architecture Edge Computing to avoid centralized bottlenecks and delays.

6. Marketers & Advertisers

Although I’ve worked as a journalist and media executive at UPI, Reuters, and News Corp., and have consulted mainly to news organizations, I’ve owned and operated a daily newspaper long enough to know that a significant portion of consumers read newspapers mainly for the advertisements rather than for news. More than 40 years ago, the Newspaper Advertising Bureau reported this was between 35 and 40 percent of readers. Although newspapers have lost much of their advertising business to CraigsList, Monster.com, and other online service, recent surveys nevertheless show that 61 percent of people trust advertisements in newspapers more than they trust ads online, and that printed ads receive a 9 percent response rate compared to online ads (including those in social media).

So, I suggest experimenting with provision of product and service information in those individuated newsletters. See if there is willingness and technical capacity among the community’s retailers for that. Can auto dealers provide the newspaper’s AI with information about their inventories of new and used cars for sale? Or can an AI’s ‘agents’ obtain that information by scraping it from the dealers’ websites? And from other types of businesses, the inventory of houses for sale or rent, apartments, etc. Would any local consumers want to be alerted if a seller drops the prices to what a consumer considers an agreeable price? The local newspaper used to be the central hub of information about products and services in its community for information. Can that situation return? It’s worth an experiment to find out.


The mistake that monks in scriptoria made more than 500 years ago when faced with Gutenberg’s invention of the printing press was that they didn’t themselves purchase and begin operating such presses. They myopically believed that their purpose was to sustain hand production of Bibles and forgot that their actual purpose was to spread ‘The Word of God’. Had they begun using the new technology that was taking away their business, they would still be in that business and perhaps still dominating it. Mass Media executives must avoid a similar mistake in the face of computer-mediated individuation technologies. Utilize the new technologies that your former consumers left you to use. You’ll stay in business much longer.

The True Online Strategy for the Mass Media – Part 2 of 4

What’s Required and The Solution

The correct strategy for the Mass Media industries must integrally solve requirements content creators, consumers, and advertisers have. These seven requirements are the building blocks for the correct strategy:

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1. A PRACTICAL MEANS FOR CONTENTS CREATORS TO TRACK THEIR CONTENTS’ USAGE AND CHARGE ITS USERS. The Internet wasn’t originally designed for such purposes. However, that internetwork’s birth from military-sponsored university research provides the lineage to a solution. For the past 28 years, academicians, scientists, and researchers have been using the Document Object Identifier (DOI) system to track the online origin and usages of academic papers, research, data sets, and other forms of information. An assigned DOI number is a persistent identifier or persistent handle, part of an online object’s metadata. It remains bound and remains fixed over the lifetime of that object. Approved by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), a DOI fits within the Internet’s existing Uniform Resource Identifier system (an example of an URI is any website’s Uniform Resource Locator or URL). The DOI system last year processed more than 390 million objects of content and is administered by the not-for-profit DOI Foundation. The Mass Media industries should license DOI and establish an even more robust version to provide tracking of their contents’ usage throughout the Internet. DOI system’s ISO approval means it will likely be fully compliant with future Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems. (For how to charge users or intermediaries, see #4 below.)

2. A PRACTICAL MEANS FOR CONTENT CREATORS TO IDENTITY, TARGET, AND DELIVER CONTENTS TO EACH AND ANY CONSUMER WHOM IT TRULY INTERESTS. During the past two decades, that has been attempted through the rudimentary means of manually including keywords in items’ metadata. A major flaw in that is inserted keywords rely upon the content creator’s chosen human language. To be internationally usable, the best solution should be independent of human languages and automatically analyze and encode the item (while allowing for human oversight). All produced media contents should thus be machine-readable: the content creator’s machine analyzes and encodes it with appropriate metadata from a universal schema. Any consumer’s machine programmed by or for that individual with his expressed or recorded interests uses its online agents (almost certainly AI) to seek sources of what news, entertainment, and other information that individual wants. Intermediaries using similar technology might be involved. The appropriate mix of such information is then sent to that consumer, tracked by the DOI system explained in #1 above.



As Moore’s Law, its corollaries, and their interactions continue exponentially advancing computer-mediated technologies used, this process will continually increase its articulation and reduce its required costs (see the example in the third of these newsletters about how a small media company could implement the solution today). This is a trend that cannot be reversed. Its usage via by Agentic Artificial Intelligence (AAI) has already begun.

Which universal content coding schema should the Mass Media industries adopt? The ideal answer is Dublin Core Metadata Terms (DCMT or simply ‘Dublin Core’), the most comprehensive form of machine-readable eXtensible Markup Language (XML). This Open Standard and ISO certified schema is fully compliant with the standards of the World Wide Web Consortium and the Internet Engineering Task Force. A small number of media organizations nowadays use specialized (i.e.,, approved by the International Press Telecommunications Council) subsets of XML for their metadata (subsets such as NewsMLSportsMLRightsML, etc.). Some others use what they call “ninjs” (‘News in JSON’, a version of JavaScript Object Notation). All are subsets of Dublin Core. However, if the ultimate solution is to be universal, compatible with future technological systems and perhaps future new forms of content, then the best approach is to use the master set from the start.

3. A MULTIMEDIA, MULTINATIONAL, MULTILINGUAL, AND MULTICURRENCY INTERCHANGE SYSTEM ACCOMPLISHING THOSE REQUIREMENTS. Although most media contents produced are consumed locally, it is a fact that globalization and the Internet have also caused rising international consumption. For examples, the website of the Guardian in the United Kingdom routinely ranks among the Top Ten newspaper websites consumed by Americans. Almost one-fifth of The New York Times’s website users are from outside the U.S. Forty percent of CNN.com users are. Those and other globalized sites also provide their contents in multiple languages. Moreover, most users will use websites from newspapers, magazines, broadcasters, bloggers, etc. So, any true solution will have to operate for all of those sources of contents. In addition, if sites would like to charge anything for access, this means such a solution must deal with multiple currencies and other forms of payment (such as PayPay, AliPay, PagoEfectivo, Venmo, UPI Lite, BitCoin, etc.)



Given human nature, creating agreement among common standards and system by all sectors of media in all nations will likely be the most difficult task to accomplish in any true solution. I remember the mid-1990s when I was one of two outside consultants to the New Century Network consortium of eight major U.S. newspaper publishing companies, which were trying to formulate their initial strategy for utilizing the Internet. The staff and we outside consultants proposed that those newspapers companies create a shared online advertising system, a shared database through which all their consumers could find stories, etc. The companies, which during decades had grown used to competing against one another, reject all such cooperative efforts. Hidebound, they’d become myopic to the advantages of common defenses in a ‘converged’ online world. Within 60 months, Google News, Facebook, Twitter, CraigsList, Monster.com, and other startup companies were founded, perceived their weaknesses and eviscerated those eight major U.S. newspaper companies. Moreover, any true solution now will be even more difficult simply because it will require cooperation among, not just within, Mass Media sectors and in internationally.

4. A PRACTICAL MICROTRANSACTION AGGREGATION SYSTEM. Mass Media companies’ chief financial officers (CFOs) love charging consumers a fixed monthly sum (ranging from $5 to $20) to access to their company’s website. It makes financial planning easier and helps equity market analysts predict the company’s revenues in the next and subsequent annual quarters. Like the eventual demise of an old warhorse, this increasingly antiquated concept will be missed by those CFOs. Yet it will die for three reasons.

  1. It’s readily apparent in the market: ‘subscription fatigue.’ Consumers demonstrably aren’t willing to pay many or most websites such fees. Research by StartUs Insights, Deloitte, and others indicates that that the average American online consumer visit between 50 and 100 websites per month yet isn’t willing to pay subscription fees to more than 4 to 6 (including the fee that consumer pays for company for Internet access). Consumers’ unwillingness to pay fees to more than those numbers of websites means that mainly the major content company in each media sector (Netflix, NYTimes.com, etc.) get subscribers but not the remaining companies which comprise the majority of that sector. Is that situations what’s best for the sustainability of the Mass Media industries?
  2. Given that the Mass Media industries’ traditional packages of contents (i.e., a newspaper or magazine edition, a broadcast program schedule, an album of songs, etc.) unbundles and deconstructs once placed online, why would most consumers—particularly when Mass Media websites’ own weblogs demonstrably show consumers use only some of the unbundled parts (i.e., a story, a video clip, a song, etc.), be forever motivated to pay a fix monthly fee for access to the entire package? In a world in which unsolicited marketing postal mails (i.e., ‘junk mail’) receive a 2 to 3 percent response rate, are the Mass Media industries’ websites that convert into subscribers only 3 to 5 percent of their websites’ users doing really that much better than junk mail’s results? I think the current situation is demonstrably unsustainable.
  3. As the title itself of Chris Anderson’s best-selling 2006 book, The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business is Selling Less of More, should teach the Mass Media industries a vital lesson about how thoroughly the introduction of computer-mediated technologies has shifted scarcity to surplus. Prior to those technologies, mass marketers of goods were limited by their stores’ physical shelf space limitations. That meant they vended only commonly purchased items, not having space to sell other items. Likewise, the Mass Media industries had faced the limits of page space in each printed edition or else the broadcast time limit of there being only 24 hours in each day. That meant their printed editions and broadcast programming consisted mainly of the the items of greatest common interests, not all interests. What changed was that startup companies (consider Amazon and Alibaba) perceived how computer-mediated technologies can invert that situation. After all, there are virtually no spatial limitations online. Rather than focus their efforts upon selling commonly purchased items, they became phenomenally popular and financially successful selling the huge numbers of items that hadn’t been commonly sold. Amazon and Alibaba realized that there is greater aggregated revenue from selling less common items to more people than selling more common items to only those interested in the common. We all have a few common interests, but more (if not most) of us each have tens or hundreds more less common interests, the unique mix of which makes us each individual. This is a lesson that the Mass Media industries, whose traditional products and services are based upon serving the most common interest, need to learn in this new era.

Those three reasons strongly suggest that the Mass Media industries stop charging $5 to $20 monthly fees from the tiny percentages of their website visitors who might be willing to pay such and instead charge much smaller amounts or even microtransactions from the greater percentage of visitors willing to pay less. Would reducing the fees charged by a factor of ten linearly result in 30 to 50 percent of visitors agreeing to pay that? Or would the resulting percentages of subscribers be greater than that?

Unfortunately, no microtransaction vendor’s current proprietary system has been embraced by all sectors of the Mass Media industries, and particularly not internationally. Most were developed for a particular sector, operate using only a limited number of languages, or can’t process all means of payment. So, I say, why re-invent the wheel? I think a solution is to use the current worldwide system for processing credit and debit card transactions (i,e., Visa, Mastercard, JCB, American Express, etc.) The temporary flaw here is that this current system charges the creditor 0.5% to 3.5% of the transacted amount plus a fixed fee of $0.05 to $0.30. This the systems incapable of processing microtransactons of less than $0.05 unless the creditor wants a loss. However, I think this can be sidestepped if the transaction processor or an intermediary can aggregate the microtransactions and process those as a monthly total rather than each transactions in real time. Internet Service Providers or telephone company might be amenable to doing so if they receive a commission. (Indeed, telephone companies have had more than a century of experience processing small transaction amounts.)

5. A PRACTICAL SHIFT IN TRANSACTIONAL CONTROL, PLUS ADVANCED PRIVACY, FOR THE CONSUMERS. Mass Media industries, as well as the Individuated Media companies (search engines, social media websites, etc.), are used to ‘owning’ their consumers. Yet the epochal shift in information from scarcity to surplus has markedly changed the power dynamics in the media environment. Power has greatly shifted from content creators towards consumers, a trend that will continue for three reasons. First, Mass Media industries are discovering that their traditional ‘gatekeeper’ and ‘agenda setting’ roles are no longer as viable, and that their traditional packaging of contents unbundles and deconstructs once shoveled online. Second, governments are becoming increasingly aware of how the Individuated Media companies’ content selection algorithms are intentionally formulated for addition. Third, as Agentic Artificial Intelligence (AAI) begins to permeate the media environment worldwide, it will do so on the side the consumer because AAI systems vendors realize that the largest target market for services is consumers and not content providers. Mass Media marketers who currently ‘own’ consumers and profit from the sales or manipulation of data about consumers will increasingly find ever greater computational forces counteracting them.

6. ADVERTISING WILL BECOME NOT ADJACENT, INTERSTITIAL, OR INTRUSIVE, BUT SIMPLY A CO-EQUAL FORM CONTENTS. Traditional Mass Media marketers might be alarmed by how much the epochal change from scarcity to surplus in information has shifted the transactional power balance in the media environment. They need to adapt to that fact. During the previous era, consumers had little choice but to see printed advertisements adjacent to the stories they read in newspapers and magazines or to forebear advertisements interrupting the radio or television or cinematic content they consumed. Moreover, neither they nor the marketers were satisfied by the old power balance. During the 19th Century, marketer John Wanamaker famously said, “Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the trouble is I don’t know which half!” The fact that many online consumers are willing to pay extra fees to receive ‘ad free’ contents clearly indicate their dissatisfaction of intrusive, interstitial, or even adjacent advertising.

How much could the power balance between intrusive advertising and consumer preference change now that the power has shifted so much? Enough so that online marketing guru Seth Godin proposed a ‘Permission Marketing’ solution, in which marketers would directly pay consumers to receive ads. If the cost of those payments is less than the costs marketers currently pay intermediaries such media companies, that could work.

However, advertising is more likely, or in addition to, become simply another form of content, co-equal with news, entertainment, and other information. It would be to delivered via the same systems to consumers. The consumers select the types, categories, and topics of products and services which they want to purchase now, in the future, or when a price they are willing to pay is accepted, and such information is sent to them, paid for by the marketers. A consumer’s AAI could also formulate and predict a consumer’s unexpected needs, interests, and tastes, based upon past queries, purchases, lifestyle, and types of information used by that consumer.

I realize that such proposals might not please marketers who want their advertisements to be seen by all consumers “in case those consumers become interested.” However, surveys indicate that consumers are much more displeased seeing the sheer numbers of advertisements for which they’re not interested than they are by missing advertisements about products or services they hadn’t realized would interest them.

7. THE NEED FOR ALL THAT TO BE DONE WITH ‘OPEN SOURCE’ TECHNOLOGIES. Two apt aphorisms are ‘There is no limit to what can be accomplished provided that no one take credit’ and ‘The perfect is the enemy of the good.’ I’ve all too often seen proposed solutions to problems shatter for no reason other than someone holds too proprietary an interest in the solution. Would more than six billion people (73 percent of humanity) currently be using websites if the World Wide Web’s inventor Sir Tim Berners-Lee had required that anyone using it to pay him a license fee? Likewise the Internet itself? Using Open Source technologies eliminates the competitions among proprietary vendors delaying any agreement upon implementations. Moreover, vendors themselves find that building system using Open Source technologies tends to make other vendors who want to build atop, further, or otherwise fitting versions of what was built. Open Source best ensures that something will be most widely accepted and used. Open Source’s successes indeed are the reason you’re reading this on the Open Source Internet.


Based upon clearly observable empirical evidence from the first quarter of the 21st Century, we can reasonably conclude that the Mass Media industries, whose products and services arose from the Industrial Era’s analog production technologies, are demonstrably evaporating. Those legacy industries need to accept that the epochal informational shift from relative scarcity to surplus caused by the introduction of personal-computer mediated technologies into the media environment has caused their traditional products and services (no matter if in print, broadcast, or online), packaged to satisfy a demographic or topical group rather than each individual, not only unbundles and deconstructs when placed online and has thus become unpopular, obsolete, as has their traditional business models.

It has become blatantly clear during the first quarter of the 21st Century that what has already superseded those failing products and services and instead has become billions of people’s predominant means of obtaining news, entertainment, and other information, are the online services of relatively new companies which perceptively realized the hallmark advantage of computer-mediated technologies isn’t online replication of legacy media’s demographically-targeted products and services but the aggregation, mass customization (and even bespoke individuation), then online delivery of whatever mix of news, entertainment, and other information that best matches each individual consumer’s unique mix of needs, interests, and tastes. In other words, not just mass production and mass reach but mass individuation. That’s why billions of consumers during the past 20 years have abandoned the Mass Media’s product and services and instead shifted to using the services of new companies that offer such individuation. These novel companies (the search engines, social media, genre-specifics such as Spotify, Pandora, etc.) have become among the fastest growing in world history; are now used daily by dearly 6 billion people; and already reap more than half the world’s online advertising (nowadays the world’s largest sector of advertising).

Executives of the Mass Media industries must accepted the obvious factual reality that Individuation of contents has become the major media trend of the 21st century. Fortunately, the technologies needed for the Mass Media industries to begin offering individuated services not only not readily exist but now have become affordable costs and increasingly easy to use. All media industries must implement these and adapt. Especially when you consider that the exponentially accelerating advancements in computer-mediated technologies (particularly Artificial Intelligence) during this century will only exponentially increase the success gap between media companies using such technologies and those that don’t.

The True Online Strategy for the Mass Media – Part 1 of 4

The Time Has Come to Abandon Shovelware Strategy. What to Do Instead.

In today’s newsletter, I’m going to post to all its free subscribers the entire contents of what I’d normally provide only to my paying subscribers. In fact, this is the first time that I’ve ever freely imparted teaching and he paid quintessence of what I’ve learned during my past 33 years full-time advising the Mass Media industries how to adapt to the introduction of personal computer-mediated technologies into the media environment.

Why do I give away information that I can sell? For two reasons that together make 2026 a momentous year for the future of those industries.

The Individuated Media newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

My first and foremost reason is ‘The Emperor’s New Clothes’. A profanely naked fact is that the Mass Media industries are in grave, existential crises. Billions of consumers have ceased using printed periodicals and terrestrial, cable, or satellite broadcasts and switch to using online media. Although the industries were originally skeptical that consumers would ever do so, during the mid-1990s the industries launched an adaptation strategy (which I’ll describe below) whose goal was to compensate for that possibility and lucratively sustain the industries in the 21st Century.

Their adaptation strategy is a blatant catastrophe. The billions of consumer who switched their media consumption habits to online didn’t use the Mass Media industries’ websites anywhere as frequently and thoroughly as they had used the industries printed products and broadcast services. Instead, most consumers routinely use the online services of new enterprises that weren’t initially founded to be media companies but from whom those billions discovered that they could receive individuated feeds of news, entertainment, and other information, that better satisfied each individual’s unique mix of informational needs, interests, and tastes than any Mass Media company’s website (or practical combination thereof) could do. The overall result of using that faulty strategy for 30 years are that the Mass Media industries have lost 60 to 75 percent percent of their consumers, their advertisers, and their annual gross revenues.

Those huge failures flummoxed the Mass Media industries. My March 19th newsletter mentioned that Nielsen data proved ten years after this strategy was launched that it had failed. Yet the Mass Media industries’ executives have obtusely continued it for a further 20 years, despite now decades of empirical evidence (as well as red ink) reinforcing the proof if its failure. Like an orchestra of zombies mindlessly playing ‘Nearer, My God, to Thee’ while their titanically misguided industries sink, these media executives ‘manage decline’ as if it is normality and that they have no other choice or ideas what else to do. The situation raises grave questions about their acumen and intelligence. Intelligent businesspeople in other industries would have declared the strategy’s naked failures long ago and switched to better. Not the zombies hidebound in Mass Media corporate suites.

My second reason is that this year the technologies, costs, and ease-of-use of what I know to be the correct and true strategy have become available, affordable, and readily usable. Will the venerable but sclerotic Mass Media Industries grasp these and their capabilities as life rafts that carry them back to sustainability? Or will they overlook these and ultimately be sunk? Let it be the former, because I’m shifting the focus of my consulting from the identifying problems to implementing the solution.

So, let me solve the problem for you all. I will need to:

  1. explain the Mass Media industries failed strategy;
  2. articulate why three commonly proposed alternative strategies are illusory;
  3. state four tenets that any true solution must be based upon;
  4. what content creators, consumers, and advertisers require from the true strategy;
  5. encapsulate the true solution;
  6. describe how any media company can now afford to implement and operate this strategy (I’ll use the example of a small daily newspaper);
  7. outline editor’s new role;
  8. explain what media academicians must do to catch up to the epochal changes underway; and,
  9. explain why the search engines and social media companies that nowadays dominate audiences and advertising spending online will likely do so only another 6 to 12 years.

All that said, there is no practical way I can fit into this single newsletter edition all of what’s necessary to understand the new adaptation strategy and why it is logically so. Thus, what you’re now reading will contain #1, 2, and 3. On Monday, I’ll send a second newsletter containing #4 and 5. One week from today, I’ll send #6. And a week from this coming Monday, a newsletter with #7, 8, and 9. I’ve already written all four..

Let’s now move toward the solution…


The Mass Media Industries’ Myopically Misguide Online Strategy

I’ve unequivocally stated in previous newsletters that nearly 20 years of empirical data and declining financial statements unambiguously prove that the myopically misguided strategy which during the mid-1990s the Mass Media industries implemented in their attempt to adapt to the introduction of personal computer-mediated technologies into the media environment has been disastrous.

Nearly 20 years ago when I began teaching New Media Management in graduate school (which coincidentally was also the year when Nielsen//Netratings data began showing the strategy was misguided), I began calling this strategy what it clearly was: the ‘Shovelware Strategy.’ It simplistically assumes that:

  • websites and webpages are online equivalents of printed editions and printed pages, or the online equivalent of radio or television broadcast channels;
  • consumers and advertisers will use these websites the same ways (i.e., as often and thoroughly) as they had with print or broadcast;
  • the past century’s business models for print or broadcast would operate the same on these websites as those models had in print and broadcast;
  • and the Mass Media industries would thus earn the same revenues from online as they had from print and broadcast. In fact, most or all consumers shifted to online, then the Mass Media publishers could eliminate their expenses of purchasing, printing, and paper products and Mass Media broadcasters could avoid the regulator hassles and expenses of operating transmitters on public airways. This could make online media even more profitable that printed or broadcast media had been.

So, the industries simply shoveled their Mass Media theories, doctrines, business models, products, services, and practices of the waning Industrial Era into the personal computer-mediated technologies of the dawning Informational Era, and hoped everything would work.

It is a catastrophe. Examine the experience of the U.S. newspaper industry, the Mass Media industrial sector that has longest used to the Shovelware Strategy. During the past 20 years, as most Americans shifted their media consumption to online, this industry lost three-quarters of its readership, advertising clientele, and annual revenues. In 2006, its gross annual revenues were $55.70 billion, but will be $20.3 billion this year. And if you adjust those figures for 20 years of inflation, the real annual revenue loss plunged from $85 billion to $20.3 billion (-76%). Within that $20.3 billion are what revenues use of the Shovelware Strategy did generate: $8 .6 billion annually (of which more than $1 billion is by The New York Times alone) after 20 year of its use. Will the Shovelware Strategy’s revenue grow ever save the U.S. newspaper industry? Unfortunately, no. It might ultimately save The New York Times, but the Shovelware Strategy’s annualized growth rate these past 20 years has been a mere 0.3% for the U.S. newspaper industry which have been declining at an annualized rate -1.3% during the same period.

Any media executive who claims that the Mass Media industries long-term usage of the Shovelware Strategy is succeeding has his head stuck in the sand and needs to have his delusional ass kicked out of the industries. Continued use of this calamitous strategy calls into question their intelligence and acumen. Savvy businesspeople would long ago have admitted its glaring failure, found a better alternative, and be leading the Mass Media industries into sustainability and lucrative success. Instead, apparently braindead zombies who stagger about plush corporate suites are mindlessly undertaking these industries’ grave decline.

Why are their awareness and thinking so dead? My more than 30 years f experiences dealing Mass Media executives has led me to believe the reason they persist using this blatantly failed strategy is cognitive blinkering. They not only ‘can’t see the forest for the trees’, but most of them latently assume (despite huge evidence to the contrary) that the Industrial Era’s theories, doctrines, and practices of media—all of which they’ve shoveled into online—are the ultimate evolution of media, the ne plus ultra, and that there is no better path, so if the Shovelware Strategy has failed, there is nothing they can do, no alternative. So, they manage the decline.

So then, what do I propose they do instead ?


First, Avoid 3 Frequently Proposed Strategies That Are Mirages

Three alternative strategies are frequently proposed (mainly by journalism pundits or professors who lack first-hand experience or academic credentials in Media Management). Unfortunately, all three are equally simplistic spinoffs of the Shovelware Strategy; avoid the fundamental reasons why that strategy has failed; and thus can quickly be quashed and discarded:

The Philanthropic Reliance Strategy. Some people have proposed that billionaires, centimillionaires, or not-for-profit organizations should purchase and underwrite dying Mass Media companies. This strategy isn’t a cure; it’s a crutch. It is akin to connecting dying patients to Life Support systems. There are more than 900 daily and 4,300 weekly newspapers, 10,000 radio stations, 1,300 television stations, and scores of television networks in the U.S. (nonetheless the numbers worldwide). Are there enough willing philanthropists to underwrite all? Consider the exhaustion of those who have. Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, who was once a newsboy for The Washington Post, is now one of the five richest people in the world, and who in 2013 purchased that newspaper company, recently cut a third of its staff because he has grown tired of underwriting its accrued losses which now total more than double the quarter-billion dollars he paid for the newspapers. Likewise, Patrick Soon-Shiong, the bio-tech billionaire owner of the Los Angeles Times since 2018, is attempting to raise outside funding to keep it operating. Philanthropy only comes from a few and only goes so far.

The ‘What Works’ Strategy. Some people have proposed the solution to be finding and emulating the few Mass Media companies that have had some success using the Shovelware Strategy. This superficially might appear to be logical. However, its proponents apparently aren’t aware of Survivorship Bias. The laws of statistics predict that there likely will be identifiable examples of ‘what works’ even in the case of a failed strategy, but that those outliers aren’t applicably relevant. (Mathematician Abraham Wald’s counter-intuitive analysis of where to armor combat aircraft during World War II is a stunning example of why avoiding the Survivorship Bias is vital to finding the real solution.) A true solution will work for most, if not all, cases rather than just the outliers that survive. The outliers in this case are the developed nations’ national newspapers and some entrepreneurial websites run by small teams who work in unusually prosperous town or suburbs, etc. What these outliers have done has already not worked during the past 20 years in more than 95 percent of American communities. So, why then would someone think that their business models will now work? Don’t be seduced by Survivorship Bias.

The Entrepreneurship Strategy. Some people have proposed that journalists and other media workers who become unemployed, as well as people who want to enter the media industries, shouldn’t rely upon employment by media companies but instead learn entrepreneurship and work for themselves or even start their own media companies. As a postgraduate business professor since 2007, I have nothing against entrepreneurship. Ever since Johannes Gutenberg, most Mass Media companies were founded by entrepreneurs (including the daily newspaper my great-great grandfather founded in 1877). However, anyone who teaches entrepreneurship without first clearly knowing the ultimate reasons why teams of individuals (such as journalists or other media workers) are becoming unemployed, is engaged in malpractice. (In fact, I’ve found it notable that many media entrepreneurship courses are being taught by instructors who have never run a media business nor ever long been viably self-employed it.


Four Towering Tenets Anyone Formulating The Strategy Must Accept

When I stated that most Mass Media executives ‘can’t see the forest for the trees’ and seem cognitively blinkered, I didn’t mean only about the results of their Shovelware Strategy. They also need to perceive and acknowledge four landmarks clearly visible in the panorama of changes underway in the media environment. Only then can they be able to lead their industries towards sustainability and success online.

  • A Truly Epochal Change. The single greatest problem that I’ve found during my 30 years of consulting to Mass Media executives is that most myopically misperceive now as merely a more ‘digital’ version of the decade in the past when they started their careers (hence their belief that the mid-1990s ‘Shovelware Strategy’ might still work). Perhaps that is human nature. Change, when it occurred at all, happened slowly during in the past 10,000 years. Not anymore. Most educated people now know about the technological observation known as Moore’s Law. Coined in 1964, it has shown that for more than 125 years the power of computational technologies have doubled and their costs halved ever two years. Although the initial jumps of that exponential acceleration weren’t that much (2 to 4-times as powerful, then to 8-times, etc.), the jumps now underway decades later (536,870,912 to 1,073,741,824-times, then to 2,147,483,648, etc.) are astronomical. Quantum physics, the Internet, and the device on which your reading these words are results of that. Totally automated factories, self-driving cars, Artificial Intelligence, humanoid robotics, etc., are slightly more recent and advanced examples of it, too. Children born this year will see more change during their lifetimes than have all previous human generations combined! An epochal change from the Industrial to the Informational eras began some 60 years ago. Like the change from the Agricultural to the Industrial eras, it might be turbulent. Old jobs will be lost; entirely new categories of jobs created. Almost all industries, institutions, professions, and trades will be disrupted. Some demolished. Anyone searching for a successful media business model in the 21st Century media needs to perceive and accept the sheer scope of the changes underway. Stop trying to manipulate the new technologies emulate the old. Instead, objectively assess the technologies for their new and unprecedented capabilities (i.e., not just whether those can ‘digitally’ imitate printed paper or broadcast antennae) and let these be your guides to media business career success.
  • Scarcity to Surplus. Historians frequently cite Gutenberg’s invention of the moveable-type printing press as the most influential event of the second millennium. By magnitudes, it expanded the reach of knowledge in Europe and correspondingly reduced the cost of that knowledge, ending that continent’s ‘Dark Ages’. It sparked the Renaissance, the Scientific Revolution, and the Age of Enlightenment. However, only the aristocracy and rich could afford access to the printed products of Gutenberg’s invention. By comparison, the explosive rise of personal computer-mediated technologies during the past 35 years has given nearly instant access to virtually all the world’s information to more than six billion people (74% of humanity), the number of people who have Internet access via personal computers or smartphones. That is the greatest change in the history of media. What was once a relative scarcity of news, entertainment, and other information, has switched to a surplus, even overload. We live in a new era of persistent content surplus. And economists or sociologists will tell you, any shift in supply from scarcity to surplus greatly changes the economic values and the power dynamics in the marketplace. What consumers are nowadays willing to pay (i.e., the values they now place on various types of contents) has been reduced by the magnitudes of their increase in supply. Power in the informational marketplace has likewise greatly shifted from the content creators toward the consumers. Most of the traditional Mass Media ‘gatekeepers’ and many other intermediaries have been eliminated. If you don’t understand and accept these factual realities, you’ll be unable to function and thrive in 21st Century media.
  • The Unbundling. In his best-selling 1977 book Webonomics, business journalist Evan Schwartz was the first to note that the traditional packages of Mass Media contents (the editions of newspapers and magazines, the programs scheduled in broadcasts, the songs on a compact disc, etc.) deconstruct and unbundle once placed online. “They lose their unity. They break up and decompose into their constituent elements. No longer is the editorial package tightly controlled by a team of editors… The editors must relinquish some of that control to the readers, who play a big part in reinventing and reinterpreting how that information is seen.” That unbundling nowadays should be obvious. It’s a characteristic of computer-mediated technologies; a permanent change that further advances of technologies won’t reverse. During the relative scarcity of information during Industrial Era, how the Mass Media industries traditionally packaged news, entertainment, and other information, had holistic value: that bundled package was worth more than the aggregated totals of the elements it contained. However, the unbundling and the shift from scarcity to pervasive surplus of the Informational Era has created the opposite dynamic—anti-holistic value. The total value of the packaged elements is worth more when sold apart than when packaged. (For a good primer about this, read the 2006 book, The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More, by former editor-in-chief of Wired magazine Chris Anderson.) That makes the Mass Media industries continued attempts to market and charge subscription prices for their traditional packages of contents an increasingly dysfunctional and obsolete endeavor. Indeed, to comprehend this extraordinary change, consider the examples in the next bullet point.
  • The Phenomenal Popular and Financial Success of Individuation. If anyone wants to examine what works online, what truly has been successful, behold the spectacular popular and commercial successes of Search Engine and Social Media sites (plus audio or video services such as Spotify, YouTube, Pandora, etc.). Dwell on the examples of Google and Facebook, which are among the fastest growing companies of any type in world history and are now the biggest media companies in the world, with 4 billion and 3 billion respective users. In aggregate, thosee two companies now dominate 50% of the world’s online advertising, which is now the world’s largest form of advertising. Neither of these companies were originally founded to be media companies. So, how did these two companies, plus similar ones, come to dominate the world’s media? Because billions of consumers discovered that by using these companies’ personal computer-mediated services, each individual consumer could receive an individuated feeds of news, entertainment, and other information, that better matches that individual’s own unique mix of needs, interests, and tastes, than they can receive from the products or services of any Mass Media company (or practical combination thereof). For instance, compare Facebook service to that of the world’s largest traditional Mass Media company, China Central TeleVision (CCTV), which says it has 900 million viewers. If all of those viewers simultaneously tune-in to CCTV’s Channel One, they all see an identical program. Yet if Facebook’s 3 billion users all logon simultaneously , each sees an entirely unique mix of items compared to every other user. The term I’ve used in my classroom when describing this is Individuated Media rather than Mass Media. Although the companies of the Mass Media industries have mass production and mass reach (i.e., which is how they became colloquially known as the ‘Mass Media’), these companies of the Individuated Media industries have mass production, mass reach, plus simultaneously mass customization. This is why I consider them to be an entirely new genus of media. Mass Media executives who don’t acknowledge the obvious fact that billions of consumers have abandoned routine usage of their products and services (no matter if in print, broadcast, or online), and likewise acknowledge that those consumers have shifted to routinely using the services of Individuated Media companies, are delusional. Those billions of consumers have done so because Individuated Media allows them to receive a mix of news, entertainment, and other information, that is more relevant to each of those individual’s own unique needs, interests, and tastes, than any product or service from a Mass Media company (or practical combinations thereof) can provide. And as Moore’s Law and its corollaries continues to advance exponentially the power of computer-mediated technologies (particularly the rise of Artificial Intelligence or perhaps Quantum Computing), this competitive advantage of Individuated Media will not only become ever more articulate and powerful, but so will the huge gap in success between them and any Mass Media industries that use the ‘Shovelware Strategy’. The Mass Media industries need to stop that from becoming their epitaph.

These four tenets are observable, proven facts in the new media environment. Any attempt to formulate an online strategy counter to these will fail.


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I’ve Revamped and Rebranded the Digital Deliverance newsletter to Focus on What has Already Superseded the Mass Media as Consumers’ Predominant Way of Obtaining News, Entertainment, and Other information.

As old dogs such as me get older, we sometimes forget the new tricks we had learned.

“You’re publishing a newsletter to teach media executives the lessons that you taught in graduate school? Won’t this confuse people who instead expect a newsletter that comments about news and current events in the media industries? Moreover, you’ve devoted the past 20 years your life to recognizing the rise of Individuated Media. So, why not call it that rather than brand it with the name of your 30-year-old consulting company.”

So, welcome to the Individuated Media newsletter (formerly Digital Deliverance newsletter). I’ve revamped and rebranded it. The many lessons I wrote and taught in my required course for New Media Management master’s degree students (an elective for doctoral candidates) at Syracuse University’s S.I. Newhouse School of Public Communications, I’m instead converting to podcasts and videos for this newsletter’s paying subscribers—a better way to differentiate what they get from what free subscribers receive.

I’ve increased this newsletter’s frequency to more than weekly. And I’ve also changed its tone. I had been these past years publishing academic publications such the International Journal of New Media Studies, the Nordic Journal of Media Management, the Journal of Strategic Innovation and Sustainability, etc., rather than media industry trade journals. Academic writing is virtually required to be bulletproof and concrete, particularly because any dissident or non-conformist articles get attacked by the hidebound or philistine. Yet that can tend to make academic writing sometimes as heavy and ineffective as the Maginot Line. My career started 50 years ago in journalism, in which writing should be short and snappy, particularly in a newsletter. Here we go!


I’ve a reputation of not taking prisoners at conferences, symposia, and seminars about ‘New Media’. I’d rather immediately kill a faulty idea or unsound strategy than let those go viral. However, I regret that wasn’t faithful to that hygienic practice during an online journalism conference hosted by the University of Massachusetts 20 years ago. The result is that I’m today writing about a misguided strategy that has cancerously metastasized since.

In my opening remarks as that day’s co-moderator of the conference, I warned against the Mass Media industries pursuing a strategy that I’ll now outline below. Unfortunately for conference attendees, my co-moderator subsequent opening remarks started with “Forget all of what Vin has said. That doesn’t matter. Do what [journalism] you do best and [hyper]link to the rest.” I thought that was crudely impolite and unprofessional. I should have immediately disputed him publicly, but I saw that most attendees preferred his simplistic fantasy for online success.

  • What follows are the results.

For more than 30 years, they have myopically misperceived how the introduction of personal computer-mediated technologies has transformed the world’s media environment. The empirical evidence and verifiable data proving my statement is gargantuan and blatantly inescapable.

The Mass Media industries first encountered those technologies during the 1990s (let’s forget the proprietary online services, videotext, and teletext years, although we can certainly include those, too). It was a time when consumers’ access to online required them to plug their wired telephone line into a modem.

  • For what purpose would these industries use the technologies?

They fundamentally mistook the technologies as ways to create online versions of their printed products or broadcast services. A website became equivalent to a periodical’s edition. Its webpages to printed pages. Printed ‘right-on-page’ (‘ROP’) advertisements became banner ads. For the broadcaster, the website became the online source of recorded video clips or the live ‘stream’ of that station or network. Etcetera.

Virtually all sectors of the Mass Media industries were so confident that online could be the ‘digital’ equivalent of their printed products or broadcast services that they also believed that their traditional business models of those products and services could simply be transplanted and succeed there.

The publishers hoped that online would eliminate their costs of purchasing, printing, and distributing paper products. The broadcasters hoped that online would eliminate their costs and regulatory hassles of operating transmitter or dealing with cable or satellite system intermediaries to reach consumers. The Mass Media industries believed that online might eventually generate annual net revenues equal or greater than what their printed products or broadcast services had previously generated.

Those were the goals and practices for online that the Mass Media industries set in the mid-1990s.

  • In my graduate school teachings, I referred to this as the ‘Shovelware Strategy’.

The Mass Media industries thought what was needed for this to succeed was that consumers acquire sufficiently fast online access so that the industries could deliver to them texts, still photos, graphical page layouts, animations, audio, and video simultaneously, and without monopolizing consumers’ home telephone lines. The industries termed this ‘convergence’ because all the industries’ sectors would become capable of multimedia and compete in ways they previously couldn’t.

They achieved that situation starting in circa 2005 when approximately half of the households and businesses in developed nations had acquired ‘always-on’ broadband Internet access. Consumers had become ‘hooked-up’, ‘wired’, and everything seemed to become ‘digital’.

The Mass Media industries’ executives who implemented the Shovelware Strategy were lauded as ‘New Media Pioneers’; promoted into their corporate suites; or retired on their pensions and laurels.

The Mass Media industries, particularly those run by executives inculcated in the concept of three-to-five-year business plans, settled back in what they then believed would be the Shovelware Strategy’s start of a ‘Mature’ phase during which net profits would start growing.

  • The Reality.

Yet as billions of consumers worldwide shifted media consumption habits away from print and broadcast and to online, the Shovelware Strategy incontrovertible failed.

Rather than continue to use the Mass Media industries’ websites, those billions of consumers, as well as the advertisers attracted to them, chose to use the online services of ‘search engines’, ‘social media’, and other innovative startup companies that provided each of those consumers with an individualized mix of news, entertainment, and other information that better match each of those individual’s own unique mix of needs, interests, and tastes, than can any Mass Media company’s products, services, or feed can. Billions of consumers chose to use the websites of companies that produced Individuated Media rather than the websites of the Mass Media industries.

In the March 19th edition of this newsletter this year, I showed how empirical data in 2007 demonstrated that the Shovelware Strategy wasn’t working. And I explained in the March 10th edition how Individuated Media came to supersede Mass Media as the predominant means by which most of the world’s consumers now obtain news, entertainment, and other information. No need to explain those further now.

The overall results of the Shoveware Strategy are that the Mass Media industries worldwide have lost literally hundreds of billions of dollars in annual revenues during the past 20 years of applying the Shovelware Strategy. For example, the U.S. daily newspaper industry’s annual revenues have declined from US$44 billion to less than $18 billion during that period, an aggregate loss of more than $600 billion. During these disastrous 20 years, the Shovelware Strategy has generated merely $3 billion in annual revenues, with stagnant growth during the past decade.

The results of the Shovelware Strategy have been so bad that in less than three weeks, the 250-year old Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, once one of the 25 largest daily newspapers in the U.S., will cease publishing print and online.

As for the remaining 24 largest daily newspapers, during 2025 they lost an average of 13.3-percent of their remaining print edition circulation, ranging from 21.2-percent at The Washington Post to 5.3-percent at the Bridgeport Connecticut Post. (I note that while the Bridgeport newspaper now has the 24th largest circulation among the remaining approximately 1,100 daily newspapers in the U.S., its print circulation is merely 34,000.)

Such declines are only a U.S. phenomenon. Click here to see a chart of the circulation declines of the national newspapers published by Reach Plc (former Trinity Mirror), one of the largest publishers of newspapers in the U.K.

  • My Dare

I publicly challenge any Mass Media industry executive to dispute that what I’ve written above means that they are zombies. (I don’t care how senior the executive nor how cushy his corporate accounterments are.)

Why specifically are executives of the Mass Media industries the walking dead?

Because intelligent businesspeople abandon failed strategies; discern what caused the failure; then devise and implement a new strategy that corrects that failure. Permit me to state a frank truth: braindead businesspeople don’t.

The first empirical evidence of the Shovelware Strategy’s failure surfaced nearly 20 years ago. Since then, it has failed to produce what the Mass Media industries hoped it would. What nowadays are Mass Media executives waiting for? Another nearly 20 years to pass? The concrete results of the strategy’s failure clearly indicate that their businesses will cease to exist by then. What the executives of the Mass Media industries are nowadays doing is staggering in a zombie-like coma towards their industries’ doom.


In the next newsletter, which I plan to send later this week, I’ll begin detailing the solution for these industries. It’s the sum of what I know after working in the media industries for 47 years, of which 32 years were consulting on five continents and teaching at the postgraduate level about how the Mass Media industries should adapt to the introduction of personal computer-mediated technologies worldwide. It is an integrated, multimedia, multinational, and Open Source solution how to transact, track, and invoice the usage of every type and form of contents, so that each individual consumer received a unique feed of news, entertainment, and other information, that better matches his or her individual mix of needs, interests, and tastes, than can any Mass Media industries’ products or service. You might be surprised to learn that most media’s major usage of Artificial Intelligence won’t be in newsrooms or to create contents.

What it will require is a change in paradigm from the Industrial Era’s Mass Media theories, doctrines, practices, and contents packaging. I’ll end this newsletter edition with a similar example of such a paradigm shift:

When Johannes Gutenberg’s invention of the moveable-type press created the Mass Media, the monks in scriptoria, who laboriously hand-copied books, view that new technology as an existential threat and considered Gutenberg’s machine profane. Yet during the subsequent few decades they couldn’t compete with it. So, their employment and industry ended.

What those monks should have done is purchase one of Gutenberg’s presses. Although they wouldn’t have been able to print the magnificently illustrated Bibles they formerly produced, each of which took months or years to produce, a press would have enabled them to produce hundreds of basic Bibles in that same time. The error the monks in the scriptoria made was they thought their purpose was to produce magnificently illustrated Bibles for the few when in reality their purpose was to spread the ‘word of God’ to all.

Nowadays, I deal with mobs of media executives and old-fashioned content creators who zombie-like believe their purpose is to produce and package news, entertainment, and other information, in virtually the ways that their predecessors in previous centuries did. They fail to realize that their real purpose is to use the best possible technologies to deliver whatever mix of contents will best satisfy each individual consumers needs, interests, and tastes.

That is also the most lucrative path to success.

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When the Doom of Mass Media Became Apparent

Clear Evidence Existed 20 Years Ago Websites Won’t Compensate for Print Edition Losses

Digital Deliverance Newsletter #4:

When is a strategy recognized as disastrous? How long must its obvious devastation be experienced until it is called what it so clearly is? How much sheer volume of perennially negative data does it take to alert reasonably intelligent executives to the factual reality that they’ve executed a strategy which has become catastrophic?

Indeed, if a strategy has already failed for over a quarter century, how much longer until the executives who maintain it escape what otherwise appears to be a zombie-like condition in which they thoughtlessly stagger towards their doom?

In the cases of Mass Media executives, perhaps never. They executed a disastrous strategy for adapting to the changes wrought by the introduction of personal computer-mediated technologies into the media environment. They’ve hoped this strategy would at least reap revenues from online that are even greater than those which their printed products or broadcast services generated at the start of the 21st Century or at least compensated for any losses they incurred as consumers shifted media consumption habits to online rather than those traditional products and services. What they hoped clearly hasn’t occurred despite more than a quarter century elapsing. Yet rather than change, or even significantly alter this failed strategy, they mindlessly continue it despite its disastrous effect upon their industries. After all, why change course, even at the last minute, when you instead can go down with the ship?

I refer to what I term the ‘shovelware strategy’. The Mass Media industries simply shoveled onto websites the contents of their printed products and broadcast services. These industries hoped that consumers would use these websites the same ways (i.e., as frequently and deeply) as consumers had used their printed products and broadcast services during the 20th Century. Compounding that hope, the industries likewise shoveled onto these websites their theories, doctrines, business models, and traditional practices of Mass Media

Newspapers were the first sector of these industries to implement the shovelware strategy. They encountered personal computer-mediated technologies during the late 1970s and early 1980s in the form of news ticker scrolls in videotext; then as textual news stories in teletext experiments during the late 1970s through the 1980s; then in the form of third-party proprietary online services from then until 2000. When the Internet opened for public usage and the first multimedia Web browser software was developed, Mass Media companies were freed from having to split revenues with the videotext, teletex, or proprietary online services companies whose telecom systems they used. Newspapers instead launched their own websites and implemented the shovelware strategy. Other sectors of the Mass Media industries would follow their lead.

Within a decade, the newspaper sector was touting their shovelware strategy’s ‘success’ and believed they had data to prove it.

In 2007, the Nielsen//Netrating (‘Nielsen’) company released the data table about traffic at major United States daily newspapers’ websites during the middle of that year. Nielsen audited six months of the traffic data then divided that by six to approximate the average monthly traffic during that period. Look at the first three newspapers listed as examples:

  • The New York https://www.nytimes.comTimes led the list. Its website received an average of nearly 14 million ‘Unique Visitors’ to whom it displayed an average of more than 370 million ‘Web Page View.’ I’ll use the Audit Bureau of Circulations listings from 2007 to compare the ‘Unique Visitor’ totals: 1,120,420 copies on weekdays and 1,621,062 on Sundays.
  • The Washington Post, whose printed circulation was 699,130 weekdays and 894,428 on Sundays, was ranked second on the list. Its website had an average of nearly 12 million ‘Unique Visitors’ who saw nearly 191 million ‘Web Page Views’.
  • USA Today, whose 2,278,022 printed circulation was produced only on weekdays, ranked third with more than 9 million ‘Unique Visitors’ and more than 110 million ‘Web Page Views’.

The newspaper industry’s publicists, corporate suites, and executives who had launched the websites loved this data because it appeared to be proof that the shovelware strategy was working. However, they and other sectors of the Mass Media industries myopically couldn’t see the forest for the trees. It wasn’t the big numbers but each newspaper’s own array of numbers that told more important stories—a wider data panorama to see.

First, why does Nielsen conflate daily and monthly? It is good that Nielsen can identify individual users and not mistake them for another user if they return to a website more than once during that average month. Yet newspaper circulation, the number upon which their advertising sales rates are based, has always been calculated as a diurnal number: the total number of people who either subscribe to daily delivery of a copy or otherwise purchase a copy at newsstands, kiosks, or markets on that day. If a visitor to a newspaper’s website (particularly a website not charging for access, in the case of The New York Times in 2007) visits it only once per month, should such a free visitor count as equivalent to a paying consumer of a printed daily newspaper?

Second, Nielsen reports that the average user of The New York Times website visits 4.05 times per average month. That’s the equivalent of only once per week. Let that sink in. The website of the premiere daily newspaper in the U.S., and perhaps the world, is visited by its average monthly user only about once per week! Moreover, The New York Times didn’t start charging for access to its website until three years later. So, 4.05 times per average month is how infrequently the average user visits to this renowned newspaper’s website—even when accessing it is free.

Third, Nielsen reported that this average user saw 27 webpages during the average per month, which at an average of 4.05 visits per month means he probably sees an average of fewer than 7 webpages per visit. If that user happens to visit the website’s Home page during one or more of those 4.05 visits, he will see even fewer news story webpages per visit. The New York Times generally publishes only one story per webpage. Newspaper industry surveys prior to the opening of the Internet for public usage showed that an average user of a printed edition would read fewer than 7 stories per usage. However, that usage was considerably more frequent. The data back then indicated that the average user of a printed edition would use it 3 to 5 days per week. Yet using a printed edition only 3 to 5 times week is equal to 13 to 22 times per month. And even if that average consumer of the printed edition read fewer than 7 stories during each of his usages of the printed edition, then that means the approximate number of stories he read per month might have been 91 and 154. Compared that to the website’s average user reading no more than 27 news story webpages. No wonder many newspaper companies that have implemented the shovelware strategy are laboriously trying to improve ‘reader engagement’ with their publication’s websites!

Fourth, Nielsen reported that the average user spent an average aggregate total of 20 minutes and 20 seconds per month on The New York Times’s websites. That’s within only a few minutes of the total time a reader of the printed edition spends reading it on each of the average of between 3 to 5 days per week. In other words, the total amount of time the average user of this newspaper’s website spent there per month is merely 1/13th to 1/22nd the time the average reader of the printed edition spends reading it each month. Disengagement, indeed!

With very rare exceptions, the Nielsen data from other major U.S. newspapers are as bad or much worse. For instance, the average user of USAToday’s website visits it the equivalent of once every ten days and spends less than half the time than the average user of The New York Times’ website. The average user of The San Francisco Chronicle’s or the Miami Herald’s websites saw merely 8 webpage all month long and spent half again less times than the average user of USAToday’s website did. Even the average user of The Wall Street Journal’s website, the only one in this Nielsen table that in 2007 was charging consumers for access, had as infrequent and shallow use from its average user as the USAToday’s website did. Consider that consumers paying for access to a newspaper’s website made remarkably the same usage as consumers of newspapers websites with free access did.

These problems are even more grave because approximate three-quarters of this major U.S. newspapers’ websites charged advertisers only for the actual number of online ads that were exposed. Compare that to printed newspapers, in which advertisers are charged for the total number of editions sold (i.e., circulation), regardless of how many newspaper subscribers or purchasers picked up and read that edition. If your website’s average user visits on average of only 4.05 times per month, that’s how infrequently the website exposes ads to him. A website doesn’t deliver anything; its contents await retrieval.

The Nielsen data should have alarmed, rather than pleased, the U.S. newspaper industry and the other sectors of the Mass Media industries that implemented the shovelware strategy. More than a cursory look at the data demonstrated that consumers were NOT using these websites as frequently and deeply as consumers had used these newspapers’ print editions. The data likewise inferred that the traditional Mass Media business models didn’t work online.

When shortly after 2007 some media analysts and consultants began presenting the negative information in this and subsequent Nielsen reports, that company, under pressure from the U.S. newspaper industry, ceased publicly releasing such data.

During the 2010s, I began using this Nielsen data table as an analysis exercise for my postgraduate students. All were initially impressed by the large numbers of ‘Unique Users’ and ‘Web Page Views’. However, the more perceptive students soon noted all the potentially disastrous data interactions. So, why didn’t the U.S. newspaper industry’s executives. I think that they didn’t want factual reality to interfere with their mistaken belief that they’d made the correct decision to shovel their way towards the future rather than scientifically navigate there. ‘Management by seat of the pants’ my friend the late Murray Light, for his final 20 years the editor of the Buffalo News, called it in contrast to Management by Objective.

The U.S. newspaper industry continues its shovelware strategy in misadapting to computer-mediated technologies. Since 2007, the industry has lost some two-thirds of its readers and advertising clients and seen its annual revenues plunge from $44 billion to around $18 billion. During that period of titanic losses, the shovelware strategy generated $3 billion in annual revenues for this industry, hardly enough to compensate for the considerably larger losses. It is a number that hasn’t grown much this decade.

What the shovelware strategy has accomplished is to excavate the grave of the U.S. newspaper industry. Continuing will make the U.S. newspaper industry, with few outlying exceptions, posthumous. This distressed industry complains that it nowadays has few resources remaining to effect a change in course, which is ironic considering how few resources it initially gave the shovelware strategy in the late 1990s. During the next seven weeks of this newsletter, I’ll be writing about other mistakes the Mass Media industries made attempting to adapt to personal computer-mediated technologies. Then, I’ll begin to present solutions to the problems I’ve detailed.


The Hallmark Flaw of the Mass Media

Ask historians to say when the Industrial Era began and they will cite dates in the 18th or 19th centuries when a factory powered by hydraulics or steam engine was first constructed in their nation. I think they’re wrong. The start of the Industrial Era shouldn’t be defined by what powered mechanisms of mass production, but by the invention of such a mechanism itself. In approximately 1454, the entrepreneurial metallurgist Johannes Gutenberg invented the moveable type printing press: the world’s first mass production device.

Prior to Gutenberg, books were rarities, affordable only by the church or the rich. A typical scribe or monk in a scriptorium could copy by hand two to four pages daily, laboriously producing a simple book in three to six months. If the book was also ‘illuminated’ with illustrations or decorations, it could take up to three years. Gutenberg’s press used metal type characters that were set in a mirror-image analog of the page to be printed. This was then inked and pressed onto paper. A two-man team operating the press lever or crank could imprint hundreds of pages daily, enough to produce hundreds of books per month, more than a lifetime’s production by a scribe or monk.

The societal effects of Gutenberg’s press are often cited as ending the Middle Ages and beginning the Modern Era. This first mass production device fundamentally improved how human beings distribute, store, and trust information.

Nearly half a millennium later, Guglielmo Marconi’s invention of wireless broadcasting markedly extended the immediacy and reach of information. He converted electrical teletype signals into analog electromagnetic waves of radiation that could be instantly received across huge distances. The later additions of microphones and photovoltaic sensors and cathode receiver tubes resulted in radio and television.

From these analog production and distribution technologies of the Industrial Era arose the theories, doctrines, business models, products, services, and practices that are now colloquially known as the Mass Media. Their industries globally generate US$3 trillion in gross revenues annually.

The Present

Since the mid-1990s, the Mass Media industries have created online versions of their Industrial Era products and services ‘converged’ into multimedia websites or ‘streaming’ services. The industries hoped that consumers and advertisers would utilize the websites the same way (i.e., as often and thoroughly) as consumers had printed products or broadcast services during the 20th Century. The industries hoped that the same Industrial Era business models would work, too. Moreover, these industries hoped that eliminating the costs of purchasing, printing, and delivering paper products and eliminating the regulatory licensing hassles and transmission antenna or cable and satellite delivery systems carriage costs incurred with traditional broadcasts would result in far greater net revenues than the industries had ever generated.

Their hopes failed. Instead, virtually every sector of the Mass Media industries has seen its daily consumer audiences and advertising clientele, and thus gross revenues, decline when adjusted for economic inflation or population growth. In some Mass Media sectors, the failures are titanic. For instance, the U.S. newspaper daily industry, with remarkably rare exceptions during the past 30 years, has lost some 70 percent of its gross revenues, readership, and advertising clientele.

The disastrous results occurred because the Mass Media industries, in their attempts to adapt to the Informational Era’s personal computer-mediated technologies, overlooked or forgot the hallmark flaw of the Industrial Era’s analog technologies from which those industries arose. In the postgraduate media management courses that I taught for 14 years and my papers published in scholarly journals, I termed this hallmark flaw ‘analog uniformity’. Each pressrun prints identical copies. Every simultaneous listener or viewer of a broadcast hears or sees an identical program on that frequency or channel. With the analog technologies of the Industrial Era, there is no practical way to mass produce printed editions or broadcast programs which contain bespoke (i.e., fully customized) contents to each recipient consumer’s own unique mix of needs, interests, and tastes.

This flaw wasn’t grave during the first 500 years of the Mass Media, when the overall supply of news, entertainment, and other information was scarce and printed periodical page space limited. Publishers initially chose the most universal of topics. Gutenberg famously printed Bibles in Christian Europe. As newspapers and later magazines emerged from presses, royal edicts and national news, and reports about wars and disasters, soon became the most popular secular topics printed. Writers started journals which became journalism. As the supplies of news, entertainment, and other information available for publications grew, editors began selecting stories according to two concomitant criteria: (1) stories about which there is the greatest common interest, and (2) important stories about which the editors think their community must be informed. Broadcasters adopted these same criteria when conceiving and producing their programs. Even as recently as 20 years ago, before most offices and homes in developed nations gained broadband Internet access or ‘smartphones’ were invented, this hallmark flaw of the Mass Media wasn’t calamitous.

Indeed, once circa 2006 the majority of offices and homes in developed nations had gained broadband access, and particularly three years later consumers began purchasing mobile phones that could retrieve and display multimedia contents, the Mass Media industries presumed the new media environment finally had become ripe for reaping their own online successes. Tragically, the industries either forgot or overlooked two fundamental facts:

First, they had inadvertently transplanted the hallmark flaw of Industrial Era analog media technologies into their Informational Era products and services, a huge flaw that these new media technologies inherently didn’t have. Second, the exponentially accelerating advancements of Moore’s Law and its corollaries were quickly turning the global media environment upside-down. Traditional scarcity of information flipped to surplus, ensuing inversions in not only the economics of information but also the power dynamics of transactions among content creators, intermediaries, and consumers.

The Mass Media industries had been forewarned about the epochal transformation that would forever alter how people obtain news, entertainment, and other information, and obsolesce many of the industries, theories, doctrines, business models, products, services, and practices known as the Mass Media. In his seminal 1995 book, Being Digital, Nicholas Negroponte, founder and chairman emeritus of Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Media Lab, wrote:

There is another way to look at a newspaper, and that is as an interface to news.

Imagine a future in which your interface agent can read every newswire and newspaper and catch every TV and radio broadcast on the planet and then construct a personalized summary. This kind of newspaper is printed in an edition of one.

What if a newspaper company were willing to put its entire staff at your beck and call for one edition? It would mix headlines news with ‘less important’ stories relating to acquaintances, people you will see tomorrow, and places you are about to go to or have just comes from. It would report on companies you know. In fact, under these conditions, you might be willing to pay the Boston Globe a lot more for ten pages than for a hundred pages, if you could be confident that it was delivering you the right subset of information. You would consume every bit (so to speak). Call it The Daily Me.

Two years later, Roger Fidler, former Director of New Media Development for the Knight-Ridder newspaper chain, wrote in his book, Mediamorphosis: Understanding New Media:

The vision that CMC [Computer-Mediated Communications] technologies employing advanced personal ‘agents’ will ultimately empower individuals to bypass, and perhaps replace, traditional information and entertainment gatekeepers has strong appeal within some groups.…A more all-encompassing Daily Me presents a much more difficult problem on CMC systems. But with more powerful microprocessors and a significant increase in telecommunications bandwidth, some version of the Daily Me is bound to emerge before the year 2010.

In What Newspapers And Their Web Sites Must Do To Survive, published in 2004 by the University of Southern California’s Online Journalist Review, I wrote:

For its survival, the newspaper industry must produce and automatically deliver, wired and wirelessly, entirely intact and individually customized editions that are smaller, vertically formatted, and that combine the graphical layout capabilities of print and the interactive multimedia capabilities of the Web, and flow to fit any display screen or printed paper size.

Appearing in 2006 on The New York Times’ Best Seller List, The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business is Selling Less of More, a book by Chris Anderson, former editor of Wired Magazine, focused entirely on computer-mediated technologies’ capabilities to provide to each individual a selection of items that better matches that individual’s unique mix of needs, interests, and tastes, rather than the mainly items of greatest common interest. In that year, Amazon, Inc., a company already using that new business model, had grown to a market capitalization of $16 billion and today is a $2.2 trillion company.

Many Mass Media traditionalists abhor the concept of using computer-mediate technologies to aggregate and provide a bespoke feeds of news, entertainment, and other information to each consumer. For instance, in a 2009 column entitled the Daily Me, Nicholas Kristoff of The New York Times warned that social science studies indicate human beings don’t naturally seek “good information” but rather information that corroborates their existing prejudices. He predicted that the ‘Daily Me’ concept would cause people to insulate in “hermetically sealed political chambers” or the “reassuring wombs of an echo chamber.”

I think that such mass hermeticization had already occurred by 2009 in the U.S. after the Mass Media industries’ 1996 launches of Fox News and MSNBC television networks. Moreover, as much as Kristoff mentions a human tendency to seek corroboration, I point to an even more predominant human behavior: the tendency to seek and obtain the best possible mix of items that match your own individual needs, interests, and tastes. It is the tendency that makes each of us individual (‘individuated’) and has been rather thoroughly confirmed by Freud, Jung, Habermas, et. al.

Many hidebound Mass Media executives also misperceive consumers’ growing demand for more individuated media as the ‘fragmenting’ or ‘atomizing’ of audiences, which from an Industrial Era perspective might seem true. However, Anderson in The Long Tail quotes me:

The individuals haven’t changed; they’ve always been fragmented. What’s changing is their media habits. They’re now simply satisfying the fragmented interests that they’ve always had.

I’ll write in subsequent editions of this newsletter about how the Mass Media industries myopic misperception that they could transplant their traditional products and services, business models, doctrines, and theories into computer-mediated technologies was an industrial-scale example of the Einstellung Effect, the tendency to use traditional thinking to solve a novel problem even though better or more appropriate and analytical methods of solving the problem exist. For now, however, let’s advance to the third act of this tragedy.

The Future

As the capabilities of computer-mediated technologies ever more articulately aggregate, select, and deliver individuated feeds of news, entertainment, and other information to each of the world’s consumers ineluctably continued to advance exponentially, sooner or later a company or companies would commercialize it. What was remarkable in the new media environment, however, was that the companies that did weren’t initially founded to do so, but then phenomenally succeeded.

For example, Google was founded as a company selling webpage ranking software, not as a media company providing news, entertainment, and other types of information, nor selling advertising space or time. Facebook, which was originally founded as a ‘hot or not’-type friend or date finding application first at Harvard University. Twitter (now known as X) was founded as a group messaging application rather than any source of news, entertainment, or other information. The stories are similar for many search engines and social media applications that started in other nations. These startup companies, however, understood computer-mediated technologies’ capabilities to create individuated services and contents feeds. And they also understood the novel business doctrine nowadays called ‘User-Driven Innovation’ in which if most of their customers begin using their product or service for other than the purposes for which those were initially intended, pivot and focus that product or service on that new purpose rather than fight it.

During the past 25 years ago, literally billions of consumers started discovering that by ‘search engine’ and ‘social media’ services to connect to their friends, denote their ‘Likes’, and let these services’ algorithms record what they watch or search, they then could start receiving increasingly articulate feeds of news, entertainment, other information, discussions, and friendships. These individuated feeds are a better match to their individual needs, interests, and tastes than the products or services from any Mass Media company or alliance of such companies can provide. Additionally, even newer startup companies have launched services that use computer-mediated technologies solely to provide individuated streams of music to consumers (Pandora, Spotify, etc.).

Because search engines, social media, and other individuated streaming services all have mass production and mass reach capabilities equal or greater to the Mass Media yet with the unprecedented simultaneous capability of mass individuation, are entirely based and reliant upon computer-mediated technologies, have no possible analog media equivalents, and overcome or obsolescence numbers of the Mass Media’s theories, doctrines, business models, products, services, and practices, I radically posit these to be an entirely new genus of media, rather than ancillary some spinoffs or ancillaries of the Mass Media. In my classroom and scholarly publications, I’ve termed them the Individuated Media.

Once the Mass Media industries noticed the growing popularity of Individuated Media, those traditional industries create their own accounts on these new services so that their websites might receive online traffic from these. That soon became the Mass Media industries’ main sources of online traffic, yet primarily because billions of consumers were abandoning their habitual usage of the Mass Media industries and switching to the Individuated Media industries’ services. Google and Facebook have become two of the fastest growing companies in world history and between them now control slightly more than half of the world’s ‘digital’ advertising sales, including local advertising. Earlier this year, the Reuters Institute at Oxford University reported that the social media sector of the Individuated Media industries has now become the predominant means by which people of the world first obtain news, entertainment, and other information, eclipsing television for those purposes.

The phenomenal popular and financial successes of Individuated Media industries at the expense of the Mass Media industries has motivated some the latter to lobby their national governments to force Individuated Media companies to pay some financial compensation for their losses. That is now law in Australia and Canada, yet the compensations aren’t nearly the magnitude of the losses.

Worse for the Mass Media industries, the exponentially advancing capabilities of computer-mediated technologies have now reached the capabilities of Artificial Narrow Intelligence, otherwise known as Generative or Agentic ‘AI’. The search engine sectors of the Individuated Media industries are no longer mainly providing to consumers links to Mass Media industries’ websites and instead themselves using AI to answer consumers’ search questions. This means that the Mass Media industries have immediately seen their websites’ traffic drop by 40 or more percent, with commensurate declines in those websites’ advertising sales revenues.

Such usage of AI by the Individuated Media industries will only increase as the exponentially advancing capabilities of computer-mediated technologies do. Atop the past 20 years’ huge declines in the Mass Media industries’ audiences, advertisers, and revenues, these developments portent those increasingly antiquated industries probable doom.

Although the Mass Media industries have begun studying how to use AI, because those industries are still largely clueless that the huge consumer demand for individuated services is why competition from Individuated Media services are the root causes of their audience, advertisers, and revenues losses, they are myopically focusing their experiments with AI on newsroom usage, rather than in using AI’s peerless ever-increasing capabilities to individuate news, entertainment, and other informational services, which is exactly how Individuated Media uses AI.

The exponential progress of Moore’s Law, the concurrent rise in Artificial Intelligence’s capabilities, and even the possible introduction of practical Quantum computing, will likely ensure ever increasing individuation of media services during the 21st Century.


Now Twenty Years Later…

The Time for the Mass Media Industries to Awake to Reality

More than 20 years ago, the Mass Media industries myopically and thus catastrophically bet their future on the wrong path adapting to personal computer-mediated technologies. Subscribe to the Digital Deliverance newsletter and learn how and why.

The Mass Media industries mistook prerequisites and superficialities, such as ‘convergence’, ‘digital first,’ and ‘do what you do best and link to the rest,’ as the major and ultimate metamorphoses that these technologies wrought in the media environment. They expected the websites that they built would yield net profits equal or larger than their printed or broadcast services and products had earned, thereby sustaining themselves into the future. Despite forewarnings, they shortsightedly failed to perceive and comprehend ever much greater (indeed, epochal) changes that were then already underway. Some of the Mass Media industries have blithely trod this rapidly quickly obsolete path for more than a quarter century, despite it having so obviously led them into disaster and accelerating towards their eventual doom.

With exceedingly rare exceptions, these industries in developed nations have now lost more than half their consumer audiences (readerships, listenerships, or viewerships), more than two-thirds their advertising clientele, and more than half their gross revenues when the numbers are adjusted for population growth or inflation in the economy. Less prideful or less hidebound industries would long ago have realized, nonetheless admitted, that their adaptation strategy to personal computer-mediated technologies is a deluded debacle and instantly alter strategy.

The disaster is an industrial-scale example of the Einstellung Effect — a cognitive bias in which executives who aren’t used to rapid or a radical change employ outmoded but familiar methods to solve unprecedented problems, doing so even when they’ve been forewarned that more appropriate or efficient new solutions exists. In the cases of the Mass Media industries, they formulated, implemented, and have continued an adaptation strategy that might have seemed to them relevant during the 1990s but which subsequently failed to keep abreast even greater changes that the ever accelerating developments in computer-mediated technologies have wrought since then.

The Digital Deliverance newsletter (itself ironically a continuation of the 1990s one) will explain:

  1. What wrong path the Mass Media industries took;
  2. Why that path was wrong;
  3. What those industries should instead have done;
  4. How those industries own journalists and academicians inadvertently hampered their industries’ successful adaptation
  5. What opportunities the Mass Media industries might be able to salvage.

Consequently, it will also explain what are now called Individuated Media, which in effect are a new and unprecedented genus of media, that have already replaced the Mass Media as the predominant means by which most people in the world obtain news, entertainment, and other information, and why that is demonstrably so.

In English-language idiom, that’s known as ‘a tall order’. Why should I be writing it and you be reading it? Compare my credential against those of others who would purport to explain these things:

• My name is Vin Crosbie. I’ve worked for the past 32 years full-time advising the Mass Media industries how to adapt to personal computer-mediated technologies. (For the prior 15 years, I was an executive with News Corp., Reuters, the original United Press International, the owner of a daily newspaper, and the fifth generation of my family in the media management business.) My consulting company Digital Deliverance, LLC, is 30 years old. I’ve consulted to media clients on five continents.

• The decade-year-old International Journal of New Media Studies requested my permission to use my seminal 2002 essay What is New Media? as the very first thing it published.

• I’ve co-chaired and co-moderated the World Association of News Publishers’ Beyond the Printed Word conference in Vienna, as well as been a speaker at most of the developed world’s major media conferences.

• I’ve given the Republic of Singapore’s Annual Media Lecture in its National Library auditorium, with an introduction by Singapore’s President.

• I was the first person, only industry consultant, and only academician, quoted in the Congressional Research Service’s report The U.S. Newspaper Industry in Transition, to brief the U.S. Congress about that industry’s disastrous problems adapting to the future.

• My speech to the National Association of Broadcasters conference was one of 23 orations — including speeches by Barack Obama, George W. Bush, and Hillary Clinton — selected by a team of speech professors for publication in the anthology Representative American Speeches.

• Despite lacking any university or college degrees, I was enlisted in 2007 by Syracuse University’s S.I. Newhouse School of Public Communications, America’s premiere school of broadcasting, to write and teach New Media Business, a resaired course for master’s degree students in New Media and in Media Management. I continued as that course’s exclusive teacher until 2021 when I retired from the grind of scheduled teaching of graduate students and returned to consulting. I’ve also taught similar courses at Rhodes University in South Africa; and lectured at Peking and Tsinghua universities in China and at the University of Southern California, University of California at Berkeley, University of Missouri, and Virginia Commonwealth University in the U.S.A.

• At their invitation, I’ve presented academic papers at the biennial World Media Economics and Management Conferences and at the International Media Academics Association. Much of what I will explain in this newsletter has been published in the Journal of Strategic Innovation and Sustainability, among other scholarly journals.

As you can tell by my tone at the start of this very newsletter, I am direct and radically dissident from my consulting competitors or other media professors. I realistically expect that what I write will cause controversy and result in outrage or rejection by the very people who caused the Mass Media industries to trod for more than two decades along the wrong path into the 21st Century. Those industries’ wake-up call is overdue.

Read and hear it now!

Journal of Strategic Innovation and Sustainability

In May, I presented my conceptual paper Individuated Media in the Informational Era at the biennial World Media Economics and Management Conference in Rome. The paper has since been published the in the peer-reviewed, quarterly Journal of Strategic Innovation and Sustainability. I am particularly happy about this because I hadn’t solicited this journal. Instead, it had heard about the paper and asked to review it. Moreover, JSIS is a general-interest business journal, not a media industry journal, and it publishing the paper thereby demonstrates wider acceptance of the concept of Individuated Media.

The Rise of Individuated Media

barcelona-skyline-drawing

Vin Crosbie
S.I. Newhouse School of Public Communications
Syracuse University
Syracuse, New York, USA

Author’s Note: This paper was presented at the Rethinking Theories and Concepts of Mediated Communications conference, September 13-14, 2018, Barcelona, Spain.

Abstract

This paper is a conceptual framework for comprehending how the shift in people’s access and choices in news, entertainment, and other information, changes people’s media consumption habits; thwarts many Mass Media business models and practices; and proposes that a shift is underway from the Mass Media of the Industrial Era and to the computer-mediated Individuated Media of the Informational Era. This epochal shift, resulting in most people having nearly instantaneous access in hand to more information than has before been printed or broadcast, is the greatest change in the history of media. It is already causing profound political, industrial, and societal effects and changes worldwide.

Keywords: Individuated Media, Mass Media, limitations of media, individuation of contents, mix of needs interests tastes, indivimedia

The Rise of Individuated Media

We live amid the greatest change in the history of media. People’s access and choices of news, entertainment, and other information has shifted from relative scarcity to surplus, or even overload. More than half of the world’s 7.6 billion people now own computer-mediated devices that can give them nearly instantaneous access to more information than has ever before been printed or broadcast. The speed of this shift has been unprecedented, affecting far more people worldwide far more quickly than did the inventions of the printing press, the broadcast transmitter, or any other past development in media. This shift is also among the most significant events in human history, already causing profound political, industrial, and societal effects and changes worldwide.

The epochal shift occurred over three or four decades, no more than a wink in human history, yet spanned more than a generation in the lives of people today. The shift occurred so quickly that most young adults have known nothing but surplus, yet occurred so slowly that most older adults are only beginning to perceive the magnitude and spectrum of effects it has already wrought, nonetheless those latent to be seen. The shift’s speed and sweep has caused a cognitive gap within the media industries between younger and older adults that is crippling those industries’ abilities to adapt to the new media environment the change has wrought.

Most young adults who staff media companies, and students who soon will, are natives to this new environment, but most of them still lack sufficient experience and perspective to formulate whatever doctrines, theories, and practices necessary to navigate this transformed environment. They look for those from the older adults who run media companies or who instruct media students.

Yet most of the older adults won their positions thanks to their hard-won expertise navigating a media environment which existed before this transformation; many, if not most, during the latter decades of the 20th Century. These old adult’s expertise is rooted in the waning years of the Industrial Era, when consumers had relatively scarce choices and access to news, entertainment, and other information: only a few or several terrestrial broadcast channels; only a few daily newspapers and perhaps one to two dozen weekly or monthly magazines in their language available on newsstands and kiosks; cinematic entertainment available mainly only at cinemas, books available only from bookstores or libraries, etc. A different era than now.

Moreover, the doctrines, theories, and practices at which they are expert were essentially defined by the media technologies of the Industrial Era: such as analog printing presses, analog waveform broadcast transmitters, and others media technologies that essentially predate computer-mediation. It was the capabilities and the limitations of those analog technologies that essentially defined the doctrines, theories, and practices that are collectively known as Mass Media, the hallmark mode of media during the Industrial Era. Decades of formative personal experiences during the era of relative scarcity, plus professional or advanced academic training in the doctrines that arose from then, have shaped most older adults who run media companies or who teach media students. These older adults had known no other mode of media except the Mass Media. Most might tend to assume that Mass Media are historically the ultimate possible forms of mediated communications. Many might overlook the inherent limitations of Mass Media communications as perhaps the inviolate or immutable boundaries of the media universe. Mass Media doctrines, theories, and practices are thus the filters through which they perceive and interpret everything in the media environment: whether a flutter of change in tabloid formats, the quaver of regulations in broadcast markets, or the seismic collapse of traditional Mass Media industries in developed countries amidst the greatest change in the history of media.

If proof of that exists, it is apparent in developed countries, where during the past half a generation most older adults who run media companies have inadvertently and demonstrably led their media industries towards obsolescence and possibly collapse. The proofs manifests there in steadily declining viewerships, listenerships, or readerships of Mass Media products (particularly when figures are adjusted for population growth). The proof is observable in how Mass Media companies’ equity prices have plunged and how their market capitalization has shrunk during the past dozen years. Proof is likewise also noticeable in the evaporating ranks of their traditional media companies’ employees, as staffing is constantly cut to match declining revenues. In most developed countries, the daily newspaper industries, which as few as 15 years ago had been among the most robust and valuable of many media corporations’ assets, touted by those corporations as ‘pioneering’ adaption to the new media environment, instead have been devastated. In the United States (U.S.), the newspaper sector of media has lost more than half of its annual revenues and daily circulations. Many of the approximately 1,250 daily newspapers in that country are now worth less as enterprises than the value of the real estate upon which they sit. Nearly as great drops of daily newspaper revenues and circulations have occurred in many Western European countries and Australia. The magazine and the commercial radio sector in developed countries have suffered similar drops. The recent divestiture by News Corp. of its cinema and U.S. commercial television network assets might be a harbinger of troubles in those media sectors, too. If there is a traditional media ‘convergence’, it is not in value.

The Myopia of a Waning Era

The penultimate cause of those declines is a pervasive misperception by most old adults who run media companies. They mistakenly believe that the greatest change underway in media during the past few decades is that consumers are simply switching media consumption from ‘analog’ to ‘digital’. In other words, these older adults mistakenly believe that people want to consume via computerized devices the same packages of news, entertainment, and other information that they had been consuming via printed publications or via terrestrial or cable broadcasting. They myopically misperceive that consumers have merely become ‘wired’ or ‘hooked up’; that the competing roles and products of traditional Mass Media sectors such as newspapers, magazines, radio, television, etc., have become ‘converged’ through via computer-media delivery, thereby ‘disrupting’ those industries; and what all those traditional media industries need to do to survive and prosper is to deliver their traditional business models, their traditional content packaging, and their traditional contents (albeit with the addition of hyperlinks and embedded multimedia) into consumers’ personal computers, ‘smartphones’, and future computerized devices. Those old adults mistake superficial characteristics of the greatest change as the change itself, woefully underestimating the change’s nature and scope. This myopic misperception is seductive to those media executives who are blindered to the possibility that Mass Media aren’t the ultimate conceivable modes of media. This misperception has led them to formulate and implement what critics call ‘shovelware’ but proponents term ‘digital first’ strategies for adaptation to the new media environment. In developed countries, the implementation of these strategies during the past 20 years has inadvertently caused marked and demonstrable drops in consumers’ use of Mass Media products and declines in Mass Media companies’ revenues and market capitalization. For example, the U.S. newspaper industry has seen its annual revenues from printed editions drop from U.S. $60 billion to $29 billion during the past 16 years[1], yet revenues from its newspapers’ websites, which it has been publishing since 1996, have grown to only $3 billion during the past 20 years (and increased of merely $1 billion during the past 16 years) of mainly ‘digital first’ strategies. The results of these myopic strategies of underestimating the change underway, of mistaking its nature as simply a shift in media consumption from printed or broadcasting products and to simply online delivery of those same products, are media industry sectors facing collapse.

Although the core premise of those strategies is true, that billions of consumers are switching how they consume media content, changing from print or broadcast and to online, those billions of people aren’t doing so because they think that text content is easier to read, or that music is easier to listen, or that cinema or video is easier to watch on the screens of computers or smartphones. Nor is it necessarily the addition of hyperlinks and ‘converged’ multimedia. Much more than that is occurring that motivates a change in consumption by half the world’s population. To describe what, first examine the sheer magnitude of the shift from relative scarcity to surplus that began a little more than a generation ago.

Three Principles and Five Waves Interact

The exact timing of this great shift has varied per nation, depending upon each country’s economics, politics, and technological infrastructures. In general, however, the shift has occurred in approximately five ‘waves’ of change that altered the media environment, each of which is a direct result of the progress and practical usages of the computer integrated circuit ‘chip’ and the interactions of three observable and related dynamic principles or ‘laws’ arising from that technology:

(1) Moore’s Law observes that the number of transistors that can be miniaturized into an integrated circuit doubles about every two years, which means that the practical processing power of new computer chips doubles in each such period;

(2) Cooper’s Law (also known as the Law of Spectral Efficiency) observes that the practical communications-carrying capacity within the wireless electromagnetic spectrum doubles every 30 months; and

(3) Butters’ Law (also known as the ‘Law of Photonics’) observes that the practical carrying-capacity of fiber optics doubles every nine months.

The interactions of these three technological principles or ‘laws’ have been causing accelerating technological advances worldwide since some 60 years when computer chips began replacing manual or mechanical switching armatures and vacuum tubes in the technologies of wired and wireless telecommunications. The three ‘laws’ are interdependent because the capabilities of any computer are limited by those of its telecommunicative inputs and outputs; the capabilities of telecommunication are limited by those of the computers driving it. The progress of each of these three principles or ‘laws’ is thus dependent upon one another.

In the U.S., the five waves of change altered the media environment and shifted most people’s access and choices of news, entertainment, and other information from relative scarcity to surplus. Each wave coincidentally occurred during different yet consecutive decades of the Gregorian calendar:

  • The 1970s brought implementation of cable television, first in cities and then suburbs (followed decades later by satellite television nationwide). Consumers who used to have access to no more than between one and a dozen television channels gained access to dozens and then hundreds. (A recent Nielsen study reported[2] that the average U.S. home now receives more than 180 television channels.) A notable characteristic of this, as well as the subsequent waves of change, was not only that it gave consumers more choices of general-interest channels but gave rise to topical channels: news, sports, cartoons, history, biography, science, comedy, nature & animals, fashion, science fiction, shopping, and so on. As the number of accessible channels increased, topical channels quickly outnumbered general-interest channels and sub-topical channels arose (rather all sports, a golf channel, a tennis channel, a motor racing channel, for examples.). If your hobby is to cook, you no longer had to wait for the weekend when an hour-long cooking show might be broadcast; you could instead watch cooking shows at any time of day.
  • The 1980s brought advances in offset lithography which made publication of topical (‘niche’ contents) magazines economical. Newsstands and kiosks that 40 years ago offered 20 to 30 magazine titles now sell hundreds of titles, almost all of which are about specific topics rather than general-interest. A reader specifically interested in a specific topic (4WD Toyotas or Nordic cuisine or World War II history or Missouri vacations or bonsai gardening, etc.) now no longer had to wait for the occasional story about that topic in a newspaper or general-interest magazine.
  • The 1990s brought Internet access to the public. More than 4 billion people worldwide[3] have since gained access to nearly 1.9 billion websites, daily make 5.9 billion Google searches, and watch 6.5 billion YouTube videos[4]. (These number don’t include searches on Yahoo!, Bing, Baidu, etc., or videos seen on other websites.) That 1.9 billion websites includes virtually all the worlds’ newspapers, magazines, trade journals, and other publications, plus than 15,000 radio and television channels that have been put online, plus nearly one billion blogs (433 million via Tumblr.com alone[5]), plus social networks. Mass Media companies’ websites comprise a tiny fraction of 1.9 billion websites, almost all of which are about specific topics or individuals.
  • The 2000’s wave brought broadband access to billions of consumers. Most homes and offices in developed countries gained nearly-instant, ‘always-on’ access to the news, entertainment, and other information that the previous three waves brought. This wave eliminated the need to monopolize a telephone line to access all news, entertainment, and other information. It also markedly changed how, and how frequently, consumers accessed their newfound cornucopia of contents. It also catalyzed the rise of video content online (even allowing consumers to distribute their own online). By 2017, more people in the U.S. had subscriptions to ‘online streaming’ services such as Netflix and Hulu than had cable television subscriptions.[6] Online streaming had already become the predominant way in which consumers in China watch videos.
  • The 2010s brought all that wirelessly into the palms of our hands, our vehicles, and even our appliances. Within two years of the 2008 introduction of the ‘smartphone’, nearly 300 million had been sold worldwide. That number had risen to a total of 1.4 billion by 2015, at which time the world’s mobile telephone handset manufacturers had begun producing nothing but smartphones.[7] By 2017, smartphone access became the predominant way in which consumers access the Internet (and already accounted for nearly two-thirds of such access from Asia).[8] Some 1.5 billion smartphones will be sold during 2018.[9] The least expensive smartphones, such as the Samsung Galaxy J1, Techno L9, or Huawei Y3, available in developing countries nowadays cost[10] the equivalent of U.S. $100 to $110 with ‘pay as you go’ carrier charges for telephony and data carrier costs, putting smartphone ownership in reach of many more consumers worldwide. Furthermore, several of the world’s major cinema studios have begun developing video entertainment specifically for smartphones, raising billions of dollars to do so.[11] Meanwhile, most of the world’s major manufacturers of automobiles have begun building Internet access into vehicles (as already do most of the world’s major manufacturers of television sets). Major manufacturers of home appliances, such as Samsung, LG, and Siemens, now sell refrigerators capable of displaying streamed video from the Internet.

These waves of accelerating technological change transformed the media environment from what it had been during most of the 20th Century or even ten years ago. The changes have not been incremental, and have shattered many aspects of the media environment and media industries worldwide. To think that such radical changes would not alter the doctrines, theories, and practices of media, plus how media products are consumed, is illogical.

Ultimate Cause of Mass Media Decline

Evidence of how radically the shift from relative scarcity to surplus has changed consumer’s consumption of media can be seen in the following mid-2007 table of data from the Newspaper Association of America (NAA) about usage of major daily newspaper websites in the U.S. (See Figure 1.) The NAA asked Nielsen/Netratings to compile usage data from that year during March through August, specifically about the monthly numbers of web pages exposed and ‘Unique Visitors’ received, and how often the average such visitor of each of those websites visits, how many webpages he sees, and how much time he spends on that website. Nielsen averaged the aggregate data from those six months to compensate for any seasonal or holiday variations. Most media executives and media scholars who have Mass Media backgrounds tend to focus on the monthly numbers of ‘Unique Visitors’ and of ‘Web Page Views’. Note that during the average of those six months, the website of The New York Times received nearly 19 million users to which it showed more than 370 million webpages, numbers that appear impressive.

Figure 1.

NAA-NAD-Nielsen/Netratings-mid-2007
Table courtesy of Nielsen Media Research

However, what is striking to anyone interested in how media consumption has changed are the monthly ‘Web Pages Per Visitor’, ‘Visits Per Visitor’, and ‘Time Per Visitor’ numbers.  The average user of The New York Times’s website visited it only 4.05 times per month; spent 20 minutes and 20 seconds there all month; and read 27 stories during those visits. (See Figure 1.) Visiting this daily newspaper’s website only 4.05 times per month is equivalent to visiting it about once per week. Spending a total of 20:20 there during those 4.05 visits equals approximately five minutes per visit. Reading 27 web pages during those 4.05 visits means the average visitor reads fewer than approximately seven web pages per visit. (27 / 4.05 = 6.66). If each web page contains one story, that means the average visitor saw fewer than seven stories per visit, though likely fewer than that if he also visited the website’s home page or sectional index pages during each of those visits.

[Although the NAA, which has since merged with six other U.S. newspaper associations to form the New Media Alliance, no longer publicly releases such data, private viewings of Nielsen and ComScore data by the author during visits to many of these U.S. newspapers confirm that although the monthly totals of ‘Unique User’ and ‘Web Page Views’ has greatly increased during the past 11 years since this table of data was released, the average monthly numbers of ‘Web Pages per Visitor’, ‘Visits Per Visitor, and ‘Time Per Visitor’, or equivalent data, has not markedly changed.]

This data shows radically different consumption online than in print. The average user of a printed edition of The New York Times probably spends ten to 20 minutes per day reading it, not a total of 20 minutes per month. The data from almost all the other major U.S. daily newspapers’ websites shows even less frequent and less deep usage. For example, Miami Herald: 2.09 visits, eight total minutes, only nine web pages seen per month.

Consider also how advertising exposure and advertising business models differ between online and in print or terrestrial broadcasts. When someone purchases an advertisement in a printed publication, the purchase price is based upon the net circulation of that publication, not upon how many actual readers turned to the page on which the advertisement was placed. When someone purchases an advertisement in a terrestrial broadcast, the purchase price is based upon an approximation of how many people could be listening or watching the broadcast at that time, not upon how many do. Yet because interactive technologies can detect the actual number of people to whom an online advertisement has been shown, the advertiser is charged per that number. If the average visitor to The New York Times’ website visits only 4.05 times per month, during which he sees only 27 web pages, that daily newspaper is only able to expose advertisements to him only 4.05 times per month, not daily, and only on 27 pages during that period. Because the consumption habits of people online are different than with the same contents in printed or terrestrially broadcast form, their less frequent and less deep usage online is one of the major reasons why publications’ or broadcasters’ advertising revenues online are much lower than in print or terrestrial broadcast.

During 2011, The New York Times began trying to convert as many as possible of its website’s users into paying online subscribers, and many other daily newspapers have followed its lead. Now, after seven of marketing, The New York Times has converted a total of 2.8 million of its websites’ claimed 78.1 million registered ‘Unique Users’ into paying online subscribers.[12] That is a conversion rate of only 3.6%, and includes ‘Unique Users’ who subscribe not to full access but access only to the newspaper’s recipes or crossword puzzles. Most other daily newspapers in the U.S. (except for the financial publication The Wall Street Journal) have fared even worse. Most consumers don’t want to pay the U.S. $10 to $35 monthly that publishers are trying to charge for access to websites that those consumers use relatively infrequently (such as only 4.05 times per month) and thinly (fewer than seven web pages per visit). Readers of The New York Times’ printed edition, whose consumption habits are radically different, had no such qualms. Most will, at least, scan every page of the printed daily edition, yet nobody ever views every page of a newspaper’s website each day. People consume news, entertainment, and other information differently online than they do in in print, terrestrial broadcasts, or other forms of Mass Media.

Choosing Items from
a Cornucopia of Contents

Imagine that all your life you’ve been fed the same institutional or standardized meal as everyone else was in your community that day. The meal might consist of an entrée, a vegetable, and a beverage, none of which were chosen by you but by a nutritionist who thought those items were those most people in the community would want or should eat. On some days, this meal might interest you; on other days, its mix of items does not. However, you now have an alternative: a gargantuan buffet of appetizers, entrées, vegetables, salads, fruits, breads, deserts, beverages, and myriad other items which you yourself can select. Given the choice between continuing to consume the same standardized meal as everyone else in the community or utilizing this huge buffet to select whichever items best match your own needs, interests, and tastes, what would you do? If you are like most people (the mass in the Industrial Era term Mass Media), you’ll likely stop consuming the standardized meal everyone else in the community gets and instead make your own choices from the buffet to which you now have access. That way, you will likely find a selection of items that would better match your own unique mix of needs, interests, and tastes than the items in a standardized meal could.

What if when you walked into a grocery market, the store clerk stopped you from browsing in the grocery aisles and handed to you, and each other consumer who walked into that market, bags containing the same selection of grocery items, a selection of items which he thought that most people might want to or should eat? Would you continue to patronize that grocery market? Or would you instead patronize a grocery market that allows you to browse and select whatever mix of items best fits your individual mix of needs, interests, and tastes?

Those two hypothetical examples are akin to choices which most people in the world now have between continuing to consume general-interest Mass Media products or browsing and selecting items from their newfound online cornucopia of contents. Rather than continuing to consume general-interest publications and general-interest broadcasts, regardless of whether those contents are in print, terrestrially broadcast, or online, more and more consumers are abandoning consumption of general-interest selections of items and instead are obtaining from their newfound online cornucopia of contents their own selections of items, a mix that better matches their needs, interests, and tastes than the general-interest packages do.

Each consumer is uniquely individual. Most people permanently share few universal or common interests. During workshops that I hold at newspapers, I frequently asks editors to list permanent interests shared by everyone in the community they serve. Many editors reply ‘taxes’ or ‘local politics’, disqualified answers because those topics aren’t of interest to most children and teenagers in the community. ‘Hurricanes’, ‘earthquakes’, ‘tornadoes’, ‘floods’, and other natural disasters, plus ‘national elections’, are answers that partly qualify, although most are weather-related and incidental, not permanently sustaining interests for many people. The sole topic that all editor agreed is of permanent interest to everyone in their communities was the weather. That ultimately means that most stories in newspapers are not of interest to most people. However, many people do share some group interests, for examples fans of the actor George Clooney or of the Barcelona football club or of table tennis or of Harley Davidson motorcycles or of Malaysian cuisine, etc. Most people have several group interests, some of which they might hold permanently and some of which might vary over time. Yet the more specific a topic of group interests becomes, the fewer the number of people who share it. Each person might indeed have a myriad remarkably specific or individual interests about which nobody he has met or known shares: such as be a fan of an obscure author, have a particularly unusual hobby, be a collector of an unusual type of object, love a very specific type of cooked meal, etc. Each person is a unique mix of a few universal interests, some group interests, and very many specific interests. It is this unique mix that makes each person an individual. No two people have the same mix of interests.

Each person yearns to obtain products and services that can best satisfy his own unique mix of needs, interests, and tastes. Chris Anderson’s 2006 book The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More describes in detail[13] how the proportions of universal, group, and specific interests can be calculated as a power curve[14] graph. (See Figure 2.)

Figure 2.

long-tail-graph

The theory of the Long Tail is that our culture and economy is increasingly shifting away from a focus on a relatively small number of “hits” (mainstream products and markets) at the head of the demand curve and toward a huge number of niches in the tail. As the costs of production and distribution fall, especially online, there is now less need to lump products and consumers into one-size-fits-all containers. In an era without the constraints of physical shelf space and other bottlenecks of distribution, narrowly-targeted goods and services can be as economically attractive as mainstream fare. [15]

Anderson noted in his power curve graph that huge numbers of people share very few universal interests; that large numbers of people share some group interests; and that few people share any specific interest but there are huge numbers of specific interests. The astronomical numbers of specific interests would scroll off any reasonably-sized chart. (Hence the name ‘Long Tail’.) To media executives and media academicians trained in Mass Media, the Long Tail chart indicates that the most successful media businesses should be built to cater to the few universal interests or, at most, numbers of group interests. Those interests indeed have been the realm of Mass Media due to the limitations of Industrial Era technologies. However, Anderson and other observers have calculated that the greatest area delineated under this power curve is the specific interests, not the group or the universal interests. The bulk of Anderson’s Long Tail book describes companies that during the past 20 years have used computer-mediated technologies to exploit the voluminous area of specific interests and thereby deliver products that better match their customers’ own individual mixes of needs, interests, and tastes.

Among those companies is Amazon.com, whose founder, Jeff Bezos (now the richest person in the world), understood the power curve of people’s interest and formulated a business plan that ably utilizes it. He started with books. Bezos knew that most retail bookstores built can stock and sell the best-selling books and that some are large enough to stock and sell books about group interests. However, he understood that no retail bookstore built was large enough to stock and sell all the world’s books about specific topics; topics from which in aggregate his company could make the most revenues because that’s where most people’s interests lay. Bezos knew that no shelves in a physical store or kiosk could contain books in print about all topics, but he realized that creating a computer-mediated online interface to do so could. Along with that interface, he also established huge warehouses of books throughout the U.S. and began using postal mail or commercial delivery companies to deliver books about specific topics to individuals who wanted those, thus exploiting the ‘Long Tail’ effect. Now 24 years after its founding, his company, which today sells more than only books, has the second greatest market capitalization in the world and annual gross revenues (turnover) of more than $177 billion. Among startup companies in the U.S. that have exploited similarly plans are Pandora for music (81 million users, more than any U.S. radio station has), Flipboard for magazines (28 million users, more than any U.S. magazine has), etc. All these companies allow each customer to find a more precise mix of contents that match his needs, interests, and tastes, than he could obtain from Mass Media companies packaging contents focused primarily on universal and group, rather than specific, interest. The rapid successes of how these companies used the computer-mediated technologies of the Information Era to better serve masses of individuals, and thereby gain greater revenues, should be a warning to Mass Media competitors.

The Technological Limitations of Mass Media

Most of the doctrines, theories, and practices of Mass Media arose from the capabilities and the limitations of Industrial Era media production technologies. For examples, an analog printing press, whether the moveable-type version invented by Gutenberg or the modern rotary offset version used by The New York Times, can print a massive number of copies simultaneously, but each of those copies is identical. An analog waveform transmitter can reach massive numbers of people within its range (terrestrially or extended through cable systems), yet each of its listeners or viewers simultaneously receives the same program and an identical program schedule as every other. Industrial Era technologies are incapable of producing an individually-customized edition or program or program schedule to match each individual recipient’s own unique mix of needs, interests, and tastes. In Mass Media, a team of editors at, for example, a daily newspaper selects stories to include in that day’s edition based upon two criteria: (a) which stories might have the most common demographic interest, and (b) which stories the editors think all recipients should be informed about. (In entertainment media, only the first criterion is generally used.) The resulting products and services generally are imperfect matches to each person’s own unique mix of needs, interests, and tastes. Industrial Era media technologies have mass reach, but no practical means by which to customize contents for each user—a massive disadvantage in an Information Era when billons of consumers have gained access to a cornucopia of contents. The computer-mediated Individuated Media technologies of the Informational Era do provide mass reach with mass-customization.

When Mass Media executives nowadays complain that their audiences have become ‘fragmented’, they are complaining that their Mass audiences have declined because increasing numbers of those audience members are instead online finding and consuming (‘self-selecting’, as if from an informational buffet) whatever mix of stories, from all possible accessible vendors, best matches each individual’s own unique mix of needs, interests, and tastes. Billions of people now do so. There are as many ‘fragments’ as there are individuals. During the past 20 or more years, the media industries and the media academia should have foreseen: that once people’s access and choices of news, entertainment, and other information, shifted from relative scarcity to surplus, people’s media consumption habits would shift away from accepting standardized Mass Media packages of contents and towards each person seeking a more articulately individuated selections of content items which can better match his own unique mix of needs, interests, and tastes; also that Mass Media’s standardized selections of items would become worth less as billions of people shifted their media consumptions this way; and that the aggregate sum of the items in Mass Media packages of contents might therefore become more valuable to people when unbundled than the sum of those items had been when packaged as printed editions or as broadcast program schedules (an example: Apple sells more songs as individual downloads than as download of the albums of those songs).[16]

The method by which millions of those individuals first began individuating the mix of news, entertainment, and other information, they received each day was by self-selecting it during the late-1990s from massive amounts that they were beginning to gain access to online. They first used search engines to aid in the individuation of contents they received. Back in that decade of primarily dialup access, those millions of individuals might have first ventured online to read the contents of Mass Media publications, perhaps ones to which they didn’t subscribe or weren’t available in print in their location. However, it soon became apparent that they wanted more than the world’s Mass Media could provide. (Part of the reason might be because almost all Mass Media publishers and broadcaster during the years 1996 to approximately 2010 put online only those contents that they also printed or terrestrially broadcast. The number of stories that, for example, the newsroom of The New York Times receives dailies from its own reporters and news and feature agencies and syndicates numbers in the thousands, yet that newspaper’s printed edition can only economically fewer than one hundred per edition. In doing so, publisher and broadcasters failed to utilize the full capacity and capabilities of computer-mediated media technologies and inadvertently transplanted one of the limitations of Industrial Era media into Informational Era media.) By using search engines to find more specific sources of information about the group interests or specific interests for which they cared, consumers discovered even more specialized topical publications, bloggers who knew more about that group or specific than they did, and numerous other sources of that information than could the more generalized or general-interest publications and broadcasts by Mass Media could provide. These millions, and soon hundreds of millions and billions, of individuals’ use of search engines made the companies providing search technology, such as Google and Baidu, immensely rich (annual revenues of U.S. $110 billion[17] and $12.5 billion[18] respectively during 2017).

Billions of people found more efficient ways to individuate the mix of news, entertainment, and other information they obtained when during the early years of the new millennium companies such as MySpace, Facebook, Sina Weibo, Twitter, Reddit, VKontakte, and others providing services now colloquially known as ‘Social Media’, were launched. At the core of most social media companies’ is the concept known as ‘collaborative filtering’.[19] It is based upon the hypothesis that if you have friends, then they are your friends because you and they happen to share together some or perhaps many interests. That means that you and your friends together can, as each of you searches online, find more items that match your unique mix of interests than you alone could have found. (That is your ‘society’ in Social Media.) Social Media companies such as Facebook have further augmented this by allowing publishers, broadcasters, schools, governments, and other organizations, each to create their own ‘page’ on a Social Media service so that each organization’s contents can be automatically added to any individual user’s ‘news feed’ simply by that user ‘Like’ing the organization as if it were yet another friend on that Social Media. The resulting feed of individuated contents that a Social Media user automatically receives each day is thus based upon his individual mix of friends and ‘Like’s. These services delivering individuated contents have become phenomenally popular. For example, as of the second quarter of 2018, only 14 years after its launch, Facebook had 2.23 billion Monthly Active Users (i.e., have logged-in during the past 30 days)[20], 29% of the world’s population. There are 2.6 billion people currently use Social Media and predictions that 3 billion will be by 2021.[21]

Other companies have launched services which provide individuated contents for only particularly forms of media. For examples, the U.S. company Pandora Radio, founded in 2000, has 81 million users. It lets each of them individuate streaming music so that the musical genres styles, and performers each listener hears fits that listener’s own mix of interests and tastes. By the end of 2013, Pandora accounted for 70% of all Internet radio streaming in the U.S.[22] Among Pandora’s competitors is iHeartRadio, owned by the corporation that operates the largest number of terrestrial radio stations in the U.S. Like Pandora, iHeartRadio lets its 100 million users individuate the stream of music they receive.[23] No terrestrial radio station in the U.S. has nearly as many regular listeners as do either of these two individuated streaming music services. The closest competitor to Pandora and iHeartRadio would be the Mass Media satellite radio station Sirius XM which has an aggregate total of 33 million users of its 151 channels.[24]

Individuated Media
Supersedes Mass Media

The phenomenally rapid popularity and growth of services that let individuals find the mix of news, entertainment, and other information, that best fits their own unique mix of needs, interests, and tastes, or that automatically provide them with such feeds, has been unprecedented in not only the history of media but also the history of business. More than half of the world’s population now has access to such services and 58% of them (29% of the world’s population) have gravitated to these services. Moreover, most of that 58% are been people under the age 30, who will likely use such services, rather than legacy Mass Media, for the rest of their lives. Multiple surveys by reputable polling organizations have begun to report that individuated media services, whether search engines, Social Media, or others, are already the predominant means by which people under the age of 45 in developed countries obtain news and other information, rather than by the printed periodicals or terrestrial broadcasts of Mass Media.[25] [26]

Is Facebook a media company? With 2.23 billion active users, it certainly has mass reach, and hundreds of millions, if not billions of its users rely upon it as their primary means of obtaining news and many forms of civic and societal information. Yet each of its 2.23 billion users will simultaneously see a different mix of content than any other of those users does, quite unlike with a Mass Media service. That’s why this author terms such services Individuated Media rather than Mass Media. Individuated Media products and services utilize (and are inherently dependent upon) computer-mediation to provide not only the mass reach of Mass Media but to provide the mass customization of information that Mass Media technologies cannot provide. As Moore’s, Cooper’s, and Butters’ laws and their interactions continue to accelerate and advance the pace of technological change worldwide, I believe that the effects will ineluctably accelerate the capabilities of Individuated Media services to provide even newer and more articulate matches to each person’s own unique mix of needs, interests, and tastes. And it will conversely erode the fortunes and futures of Mass Media and its practices. Individuated Media is already superseding Mass Media as people’s predominant means of obtaining news, entertainment, and other information.

The ramifications of this great shift bear further study. As most people who have spent time in a bazaar, souk, or flea market know, whenever the supply of something changes from scarcity to surplus, more than just its pricing changes: things such as the purchasers’ attention spans, the power balances between buyers and sellers, the market dissonance as the shift occurs, etc. The Principle of Supply & Demand might be the ideal prism through which to examine further the entire spectrum of media changes underway.

References

Anderson, C. (2006). The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More. New York, NY: Hyperion.

[1] Barthel, M. (2017, June 1). Despite subscription surges for largest U.S. newspapers, circulation and reveal for industry overall. Retrieved from http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/06/01/circulation-and-revenue-fall-for-newspaper-industry/

[2] Changing Channels: Americns View Just 17 Channels Despite Record Number To Choose From. Nielsen Insights (May 6, 2014). Retrieved from http://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/news/2014/changing-channels-americans-view-just-17-channels-despite-record-number-to-choose-from.html

[3] Internet Word Stats:Users and Population Stats, Retrieved from https://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm, (Last accessed August 27, 2018)

[4] Internet Live Stats Retrieved from http://www.internetlivestats.com (last accessed August 27, 2018)

[5] Tumblr is where your interests connects you with your people. Retrieved from https://www.tumblr.com/about (Last accessed August 27, 2018).

[6] Streaming services Use Now More Common than Cable Subscriptions. (June 7, 2017) eMarketer. Retrieved from https://www.emarketer.com/Article/Streaming-Service-Use-Now-More-Common-than-Cable-Subscriptions/1015971?ecid=NL1001

[7] Number of smartphones sold to end users worldwide from 2007 to 2017 (in million units). Statista. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/statistics/263437/global-smartphone-sales-to-end-users-since-2007/

[8] Percentage of all global web pages served to mobile phones from 2009 to 2018. Statista. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/statistics/241462/global-mobile-phone-website-traffic-share/

[9] Number of smartphones sold to end users worldwide from 2007 to 2017 (in million units). Statista. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/statistics/263437/global-smartphone-sales-to-end-users-since-2007/

[10] Top 5 cost-conscious mobile phones for the African consumer. (2017, October 5). IT News Africa. Retrieved from http://www.itnewsafrica.com/2017/10/top-5-cost-conscious-mobile-phones-for-the-african-consumer/

[11] Jeffrey Katenbergs’s ‘NewTV’ Startup Closes $1 Billion, All Major Studios Among Investors. (2018,  August 7). Variety.  Retrieved from https://variety.com/2018/digital/news/newtv-jeffrey-katzenberg-meg-whitman-1-billion-funding-1202897529/

[12] Peiser, J., New York Times Co. Reports Revenue Growth as Digital Subscriptions Rise. (2018, May 3). The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/03/business/media/new-york-times-earnings.html

[13] Anderson,, C., The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More  (2005) Hyperion. Retrieved from https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0935726942/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_bibl_vppi_i5

[14] Concepts: Power Law. New England Complex Systems Institute. Retrieved from http://www.necsi.edu/guide/concepts/powerlaw.html

[15] Anderson, C., About Me. Retrieved from http://www.longtail.com/about.html

[16] Covert, A. (2013, April 25). A decade of iTunes singles killed the music industry. CNNTech. Retrieved from https://money.cnn.com/2013/04/25/technology/itunes-music-decline/index.html

[17] Alphabet Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2017 Results. (2018, February 1). Press release. Retrieved from https://abc.xyz/investor/pdf/2017Q4_alphabet_earnings_release.pdf

[18]  Form 20-F (2018, April 18). Baidu, Inc. Retrieved from http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/IROL/18/188488/2018/Baidu%202017%20Form%2020-F.pdf

[19] Terveen, L. and Hill, W. Beyond Recommender Systems: Helping People Help Each Other. (2001) Retrieved from http://files.grouplens.org/papers/rec-sys-overview.pdf

[20] Number of monthly active Facebook users worldwide as of 2nd quarter 2018 (in millions). Statista. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/statistics/264810/number-of-monthly-active-facebook-users-worldwide/

[21] Number of social media users worldwide from 2010 to 2012 (in billions). Statista. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/statistics/278414/number-of-worldwide-social-network-users/

[22] Guglielmo, C., Pandora Plays Nice as Apple’s iTunes Radio Spins Up. (2013, November 13). Forbes. Retrieved from https://www.forbes.com/sites/connieguglielmo/2013/11/13/pandora-media-needs-a-new-music-royalty-deal-will-it-be-the-same-one-apple-got/#77e681a567ac

[23] McIntyre, H. (2017, March 23). iHeartRadio Hits 100 Million Users. Forbes. Retrieved from https://www.forbes.com/sites/hughmcintyre/2017/03/23/iheartradio-hits-100-million-users/#7d8c0ccca874

[24] SiriusXM Reports Second Quarters 2018 Results. (2018, July 25). Sirius XM Radio Inc. press release.. Retrieved from http://investor.siriusxm.com/investor-overview/press-releases/press-release-details/2018/SiriusXM-Reports-Second-Quarter-2018-Results/default.aspx

[25] Shearer, E, and Gottfried, J. News User Across Social Media Platforms 2017. (2017, September 7), Pew Research Center. Retrieved from http://www.journalism.org/2017/09/07/news-use-across-social-media-platforms-2017/

[26] Grieco, E. More Americans are turning to multiple social media sites for news. (2017, November 2). Pew Research Center. Retrieved from http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/11/02/more-americans-are-turning-to-multiple-social-media-sites-for-news/